Bitcoin Market Analysis - July 2025
Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight decline of 0.23% on July 12, 2025, closing at $116,617 after reaching an all-time high of $118,302 the previous day. This dip interrupted a four-day winning streak for BTC.
Impact of US Trade Tariffs
The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, following a similar levy on Canada, has contributed to a negative sentiment in the market. These tariffs are expected to increase inflationary pressures in the US, which may delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, allowing time for negotiations.
Legislative Developments and ETF Demand
Despite the geopolitical tensions, the progress of key crypto legislation, including the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Bill, has positively influenced demand for BTC-spot ETFs. The upcoming "Crypto Week" in Congress is anticipated to bring significant attention to these bills.
Notable inflows into BTC-spot ETFs were reported, with total net inflows reaching $2.72 billion, marking the third highest weekly figure since the launch of these ETFs in January 2024. Major contributors included:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $1.76 billion
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): $399.9 million
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): $339.1 million
Price Outlook and Scenarios
The future price of Bitcoin is influenced by several factors:
- Trade developments
- Legislative updates regarding crypto bills
- Upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve policy
- BTC-spot ETF flows
Two potential scenarios for BTC's price movement are outlined:
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade tensions, dovish Fed signals, successful passage of crypto bills, and strong ETF inflows could push BTC towards $120,000.
- Bearish Scenario: Heightened trade tensions, hawkish Fed commentary, legislative delays, and ETF outflows could see BTC drop towards $100,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating a bullish trend. A breakout above the recent high of $118,302 could lead to targets of $120,000 and potentially $130,000. Conversely, a drop below $110,000 may expose the 50-day EMA and the critical support level of $100,000.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 71.81, suggesting that BTC is in overbought territory, which could lead to increased selling pressure.
Ethereum Market Update
Ethereum (ETH) is also showing bullish signals, trading above its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A breakout above the $3,000 resistance level could lead to further gains towards $3,287 and $3,500. However, a decline below $2,815 may expose the EMAs.
The RSI for ETH is at 70.90, indicating it is also in overbought territory, which may lead to selling pressure at recent highs.