Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Structure Points to Lower Levels

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: June 12, 2026

Market Overview

Natural gas prices are currently under bearish pressure, having confirmed a double top breakdown. The price has been testing key moving averages and Fibonacci support zones, indicating a build-up of downside momentum.

Price Action Analysis

On Friday, natural gas reached a new pullback low of $3.03 before bouncing intraday, testing resistance near the prior trend support levels of the 20-day and 100-day moving averages. A lower daily high of $3.14 was established at the 100-day average resistance. The confirmation of prior support turning into resistance strengthens the bearish continuation setup, suggesting that the decline may continue.

Double Top Confirmation

A breakdown of a double top formation occurred below $3.10 on Wednesday, coinciding with a break below potential support near the 20-day moving average. Although there was initially little bearish follow-through, support was found at the uptrend line, closing above the neckline. However, a subsequent break below $3.10 on Thursday triggered renewed downside momentum, confirming the double top formation with a close below the neckline at $3.09.

Downtrend Formation

The formation of a second lower swing high on Wednesday indicates a developing downtrend characterized by lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The price generated a second lower low following the May peak of $3.40, suggesting that natural gas is in either its second or third leg down from that peak, establishing a clear short-term bearish trend.

Downside Targets and Support Levels

Given the recent bearish signals, natural gas is likely to continue its downward trajectory towards the next potential support zone, starting with the 50-day moving average at $2.89 and extending to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.84. A higher swing low at $2.86 from May remains a critical structural support level. A drop below this level would indicate a reversal of the uptrend and a failure of support at the 50-day moving average.

Reversal Conditions

For a bullish reversal signal, short-term strength would need to be established above Friday’s high of $3.14, with the lower swing high of $3.25 needing to be reclaimed.

Conclusion

The analysis indicates that natural gas is currently in a bearish phase, with significant resistance levels and potential downside targets identified. Traders should monitor key support levels closely to gauge the market's direction.