Market Overview - February 27, 2026

Key Markets to Watch

As we approach the week of February 27, 2026, several significant events are set to influence global markets. Key highlights include:

• The commencement of China's "Two Sessions," which are critical political meetings.
• Global PMI and CPI releases, which will provide insights into economic health.
• The US labor market report scheduled for Friday, which will be closely monitored.
• The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, which will address oil production strategies.
• UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spring Statement on Tuesday.
• Central bank communications, including the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday and ECB meeting accounts on Thursday.

EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is expected to serve as a barometer for macroeconomic data strength and central bank expectations. Key data releases for the euro area include:

• CPI inflation on Tuesday
• Services PMI and unemployment data on Wednesday
• Euro area GDP on Friday

In the US, focus will be on:

• ISM manufacturing data on Monday
• ADP and ISM services data on Wednesday
• The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report and unemployment rate on Friday

The potential risk for euro bulls lies in a weaker labor market report that may not shift the Fed's rhetoric if wage growth and services inflation remain high. Conversely, signs of a cooling labor market in the US could lead to lower short-end yields and an appreciation of the EUR/USD.

US500 Index Overview

The US equity market is entering a week characterized by macroeconomic uncertainty, balanced by support from corporate earnings. The US500 index will react to:

• Hard activity data (PMI, ISM)
• Fed communications, particularly the Beige Book
• The interpretation of the labor market report on Friday

Additionally, the ongoing earnings season will be crucial, with reports from major companies such as Broadcom, Costco, Target, Kroger, Marvell, MongoDB, and CrowdStrike potentially causing significant shifts between quality growth, cyclical sectors, and defensive stocks.

Oil Market Insights

The oil market will be influenced by political risks and supply decisions as the week begins. The OPEC+ meeting on March 8, 2026, is expected to be a major catalyst for shaping production expectations. Midweek, attention will shift to China, with PMI releases and the start of the "Two Sessions" potentially altering the demand narrative.

Hawkish signals from OPEC+ and positive communication from China could reignite upward momentum in oil prices. However, disappointing data from China or a more accommodative supply stance could limit upside potential, keeping the market within a broad consolidation range.