Market Summary - July 4, 2025
Overview
On July 4, 2025, the U.S. labor market data released on Thursday surprised analysts, leading to significant market movements. The non-farm payrolls (NFP) report showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This positive data spurred a risk-on sentiment in the markets.
Market Reactions
In response to the labor market data, U.S. indices reached record highs, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 leading the charge. The U.S. dollar also experienced a sharp increase against other currencies, reflecting renewed optimism about the U.S. economy.
International Developments
In addition to the U.S. data, Switzerland reported a surprising inflation rate (CPI) of 0.2%, which was double the expected 0.1%. This unexpected inflation figure provided support for the Swiss franc, allowing it to recover against several major currencies.
Friday Market Activity
With U.S. markets closed for Independence Day, trading activity was expected to be lower. However, early trading in Europe indicated some profit-taking on the U.S. dollar, which was slightly retreating from its gains. The Japanese yen, euro, and Swiss franc showed slight strengthening, while commodity currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars continued to struggle.
Commodity Markets
Oil prices, which had surged on Thursday, experienced a slight pullback but remained up for the week. Meanwhile, precious metals like gold and silver continued their upward trend, supported by stable yields and a non-accelerating dollar.
Looking Ahead
As there were no major economic data releases scheduled for Friday, volatility was expected to decrease throughout the session. Traders were advised to keep an eye on the scheduled speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, which was the only significant event on the calendar for the day.