US Dollar Eyes 100, Though EUR/USD and USD/CAD Warn of Pullback
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: April 3, 2026
Overview
The US dollar has experienced a significant rally, bringing the 100 level on the US Dollar Index (DXY) back into focus. This surge has been influenced by a positioning extreme in futures markets and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. However, technical indicators from major currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/CAD suggest that a pullback may occur before the dollar can continue its upward trajectory.
Market Sentiment and Positioning
Recent reports indicated a potential sentiment extreme for the US dollar, with net-short positions in the futures market reaching a five-year high. A reduction of $3.2 billion in net-short exposure was noted last week, coinciding with the recent rally. If geopolitical tensions persist and US economic data continues to suggest no Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, the dollar may push above the 100 level. However, there are signs indicating a possible near-term retracement.
Divergent Views Among Traders
Futures traders exhibit mixed signals regarding the US dollar. While there is an overall bearish sentiment, asset managers hold a relatively small net-short position, indicating a lack of strong conviction. The 100 level remains a critical resistance point, and while a move above it is anticipated, the potential for a pullback exists.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD
The euro, which constitutes a significant portion of the DXY, has shown notable movement. A recent two-day decline for EUR/USD was the worst in three years, yet it managed to hold above key support levels, including the 200-day EMA. A bullish inside day has formed, suggesting potential upward momentum. Traders may look for buying opportunities near the 200-day EMA, targeting a move towards 1.17.
Technical Analysis: USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar has gained strength against the US dollar, with USD/CAD forming a shooting star candle, indicating a possible swing high. The recent bearish candle closed below the 20-day EMA, completing a three-bar bearish reversal pattern. This suggests that traders may look to sell on retracements, anticipating further downside for USD/CAD.
Conclusion
While the US dollar is poised to challenge the 100 level, technical indicators from EUR/USD and USD/CAD suggest that a pullback may be imminent. Traders should remain vigilant and consider both the geopolitical landscape and market sentiment as they navigate potential trading opportunities.