US Bank Earnings: What to Expect from Q2 2026

When do US banks report Q2 earnings?

The major US banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, are set to report their Q2 earnings on 14 July, prior to the opening of the US market. These reports are significant as they provide insights into the broader earnings season and the health of the economy.

What the numbers say

JPMorgan is expected to report adjusted earnings of $5.62 per share on revenues of $49.5 billion, with a positive revision of 3.7% in EPS estimates over the past month. The bank has consistently beaten earnings expectations for the last eight quarters, with shares currently trading around $338, compared to an average analyst target of $350.

Bank of America is projected to earn $1.12 per share on $30.7 billion in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 25%. Its EPS estimates have been revised up by 2.2% recently, with shares near $60 and a target of $64.

Citigroup and Wells Fargo will also report on the same day, with Citigroup showing modestly higher Q2 estimates, while Wells Fargo has seen a slight reduction in estimates due to margin pressures.

The trading and credit picture

Trading desks are anticipated to have a solid quarter, with revenue growth expected in the range of 10% to 15%. This performance is crucial for larger banks and is likely to support overall earnings. However, the M&A landscape remains mixed, with equity capital markets performing well but merger activity lagging due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Credit quality appears stable, with low levels of delinquencies and bankruptcies, alleviating some concerns typically associated with bank earnings. However, there is increased scrutiny on private-credit exposure, particularly related to the software and data-center sectors.

Do bank shares still look cheap?

The banking sector has shown strong performance, with the KBW Bank Index up about 12% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500. Regional banks have seen even greater gains, with some up over 20%. In contrast, some larger banks like Capital One and Wells Fargo have struggled due to specific challenges.

Valuation-wise, banks are trading at approximately 12 times earnings, compared to 22 times for the S&P 500. Analysts project an 11% earnings growth for the sector in 2026, suggesting that the current discount in valuations may not be excessive.

Bull and bear cases

For bullish investors, the outlook is positive, citing factors such as accelerating loan growth, resilient credit conditions, strong trading revenues, and attractive valuations. Conversely, bearish perspectives highlight concerns over a flattening yield curve, sluggish M&A activity, and uncertainties surrounding private credit.

The consensus suggests that the upcoming earnings reports will likely reinforce the positive trend in the banking sector, as banks have consistently exceeded expectations, and revisions to estimates are trending upward.