Summary of Key Economic Events - March 9, 2026

Overview of Economic Data

The United States released mixed economic data last week. Initial jobless claims were lower than expected, while crude oil inventories saw an increase. The Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) displayed a mixed performance between the manufacturing and services sectors. Labor market data indicated some weakness, highlighted by a loss of jobs in the Nonfarm Payrolls report and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, despite growth in average wages.

In the Eurozone, economic activity showed improvement, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansion territory and the services PMI rising. However, retail sales and fourth-quarter economic growth fell below expectations, and inflation accelerated to 1.9%. The United Kingdom experienced noticeable declines in manufacturing and construction activity, while the services sector remained stable, indicating divergence across sectors.

Switzerland's data pointed to weaker economic activity, with retail sales declining and the PMI remaining in contraction territory, despite slightly higher inflation. In Canada, economic activity improved as the Ivey PMI rose to strong levels. Australia recorded stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter, although manufacturing performance was weaker, while the services sector remained in expansion. Japan's economic activity improved with stronger PMIs, although the unemployment rate edged slightly higher. In China, official indicators signaled weakness, with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in contraction, although Caixin indicators showed a stronger performance.

Market Analysis

USD / JPY

The USD/JPY pair reached 158.09, its highest level since January 23, 2026, closing at 157.75. The Japanese yen has not played its traditional safe-haven role recently, while the US dollar appears to be the only safe-haven currency among major currencies. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating bullish momentum.

Oracle

Oracle's stock has declined by about 22% year-to-date, with earnings results expected on March 9, 2026. Analysts anticipate earnings per share of $1.71 and revenue of $16.91 billion. The RSI stands at 46, indicating negative momentum.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices rose to $94.64 per barrel, up approximately 53% year-to-date. This surge is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The OVX oil volatility index rose by 24%, reflecting heightened anxiety in oil markets. Commerzbank predicts oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the strait remains closed. The RSI is at 88, indicating overbought territory.

Dow Jones Index

The Dow Jones Index fell by 3% last week, marking its second consecutive weekly decline due to the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran. Concerns about rising interest rates and inflationary pressures weighed on sentiment. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a loss of 92,000 jobs, raising concerns about stagflation. The RSI is at 33, indicating negative momentum.

Key Events This Week

Several important economic indicators are expected this week:

• Monday: China - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)
• Tuesday: Japan - Household spending and GDP data; China - Exports and imports data; US - Existing home sales
• Wednesday: US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and crude oil inventories
• Thursday: Canada - Trade balance; US - Jobless claims and trade balance
• Friday: UK - GDP and industrial production; Eurozone - Industrial production; US - Core PCE prices, GDP, job openings, and consumer sentiment index; Canada - Employment change and unemployment rate