Summary of U.S. Tariffs Take Effect, Markets Eye Trump Speech
Author: Martin Lam
Date: February 25, 2026
Market Overview
The United States has initiated a new 10% temporary global import tariff, with plans from the Trump administration to increase this to 15%. This move has influenced market dynamics, leading to a rebound in U.S. consumer confidence for February, which exceeded expectations. Consequently, major U.S. indices saw gains: the Dow Jones increased by 0.76%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.77%, and the Nasdaq advanced by 1.04%. The U.S. Dollar Index also saw a slight increase of 0.14%, reaching 97.82, while the EUR/USD pair dipped by 0.11% to 1.1771.
Commodity Market Reactions
Gold prices fell from a three-week high, influenced by a stronger dollar as the market awaits further details on the U.S. tariff strategy and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Crude oil prices also declined following Iran's indication of readiness to negotiate ahead of upcoming nuclear talks.
Key Outlook
Market participants are keenly awaiting President Trump's State of the Union address, where he may discuss the new tariff measures. Economic data releases from the Eurozone are also on the radar, with Germany's final Q4 GDP expected to remain modest at 0.6% and Eurozone January CPI projected at 1.7%. These figures are unlikely to shift market expectations regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate policy. Additionally, Nvidia's earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into technology stocks and overall U.S. equity sentiment.
Key Data and Events
- 10:00 - U.S. President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union Address
- 15:00 - EU Germany GDP QoQ Final Q4
- 15:00 - EU Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR
- 18:00 - EU CPI YoY Final JAN
- 23:30 - EIA Crude Oil Stock Change
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance levels are at 1.1828 and 1.1847, while support is found at 1.1727 and 1.1702. The pair remains under pressure from hawkish Fed signals, with a failure to break above 1.1850 exposing lower support levels.
GBP/USD
Resistance is noted at 1.3539 and 1.3562, with support at 1.3430 and 1.3407. The pair is constrained by trade-policy uncertainty and hawkish Fed rhetoric, necessitating a break above 1.3562 to alleviate downward pressure.
USD/JPY
Resistance levels are at 157.03 and 157.68, with support at 154.88 and 154.23. The pair is trending higher, supported by Fed hawkishness, but a failure to clear resistance could lead to a pullback.
Crude Oil Futures
WTI crude oil is trading around $66, with resistance at 66.76 and 67.35, and support at 65.23 and 64.77. A breakout above $67 is necessary to regain bullish momentum.
Gold and Silver
Gold is retreating towards support at $5,092 and $5,027, while silver faces resistance at 92.21 and 95.46, with support at 81.50 and 78.18.
Dow Futures
The Dow has rebounded but remains below resistance at 49,470 and 49,716. A sustained move above this zone is needed for further upside momentum.
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 is testing resistance at 25,224 and 25,404, with a decisive break needed to shift the current downtrend.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is consolidating within a descending channel, with resistance at 66,065 and support at 63,175. A breakout above resistance is crucial to neutralize bearish momentum.
Conclusion
As markets react to the new tariffs and await key economic data and corporate earnings, traders should remain vigilant of geopolitical developments and central bank communications that could influence market sentiment.