Bitcoin Price Forecast and Market Analysis
Published: June 29, 2025
Author: Bob Mason
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin (BTC) has risen to $107,340, approaching its all-time high of $111,917 due to ETF inflows and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Spot ETF inflows reached $2.2 billion in one week, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading with over $1.3 billion in net inflows.
- The future price of Bitcoin is influenced by Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical risks, legislative developments, and ETF momentum.
Market Overview
On June 28, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight increase of 0.2%, building on a previous gain of 0.15%. This upward trend is attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in Q3. The recent US economic data, including a decline in personal income and spending, has further fueled these expectations.
US Economic Data Insights
The latest US Personal Income and Outlays report indicated a potential for a Q3 Fed rate cut, as personal income and spending fell unexpectedly in May. This decline raises concerns about consumer spending, which is crucial for the US economy, contributing over 60% to its GDP. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an increase in the likelihood of a rate cut from 69.7% to 91.4% following recent data and Fed comments.
ETF Inflows and Bitcoin Demand
Market expectations regarding the Fed's policy have significantly boosted demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. Notable inflows for the week ending June 27 include:
- BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT): $1,310.9 million
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC): $504.5 million
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB): $268.2 million
The total net inflows for the week reached $2,214.8 million, extending the inflow streak to 14 sessions, with June's total inflows at $4,476.6 million.
Price Outlook and Scenarios
The near-term price trajectory of Bitcoin is contingent on several macroeconomic and market factors:
- Geopolitical developments in the Middle East
- Trade headlines
- Legislative updates, particularly regarding the Bitcoin Act
- Upcoming US economic data and Fed cues
- US BTC-spot ETF flows
Price Scenarios:
- Bullish Scenario: Easing geopolitical tensions, dovish Fed signals, bipartisan support for crypto legislation, and positive US data could propel BTC towards $111,917.
- Bearish Scenario: Renewed geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed signals, legislative hurdles, or recession fears could push BTC below $100,000.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), indicating bullish momentum. A breakout above the recent high of $108,402 could lead to a target of $110,000, with the potential to reach $111,917. Conversely, a drop below $105,000 could expose lower levels.
Ethereum Market Performance
Ethereum (ETH) is also showing signs of bullish momentum in the short term, trading above the 50-day EMA but below the 200-day EMA. However, ETH has lagged behind BTC in terms of ETF inflows, with less than $300 million recorded. A breakout above the 200-day EMA could lead to a retest of the June high of $2,879.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin continues to gain traction amid favorable market conditions and ETF inflows, its price trajectory remains closely tied to macroeconomic indicators and Federal Reserve policy. Investors should remain vigilant regarding geopolitical developments and legislative changes that could impact the cryptocurrency landscape.