Market Analysis Summary: Ceasefire Extended, Focus Turns to UK Inflation

Author: Martin Lam

Date: April 22, 2026

Key Highlights

• U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, which was set to expire soon. The acceptance of this extension by Iran and Israel remains uncertain.
• Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates for the remainder of the year.
• Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of protecting the Federal Reserve's independence if he is appointed to a position within the Fed.
• Market focus is shifting towards the expiration of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, with investors keenly observing Iran's response to the extension.
• In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for March are anticipated, with CPI expected to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, indicating ongoing inflation pressures that may delay rate cuts by the Bank of England.

Global Market Review

U.S. stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.59%, the Nasdaq by 0.59%, and the S&P 500 by 0.63%. Concerns over the Middle East conflict overshadowed initial optimism from strong corporate earnings. U.S. Treasuries also declined for the second consecutive session, while the U.S. dollar reached a one-week high.

Gold prices fell to their lowest in over a week, with spot gold dropping 2.2% to $4,711.67 per ounce. In contrast, international oil prices rose, with WTI crude futures increasing by 5% following the announcement of the ceasefire extension.

Key Economic Events

• Expiration of the temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
• Release of U.S. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.
• UK CPI and PPI YoY for March.
• EU Consumer Confidence Flash for April.
• EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stock data.

Market Analysis

EUR/USD

Current Price: 1.1736

Resistance: 1.1773/1.1835 | Support: 1.1724/1.1674

Analyst View: The pair is under pressure but remains supported below 1.1724–1.1674.

GBP/USD

Current Price: 1.3493

Resistance: 1.3555/1.3603 | Support: 1.3432/1.3395

Analyst View: The pair is experiencing a mild pullback, with support holding at 1.3395–1.3432.

USD/JPY

Current Price: 159.39

Resistance: 159.71/160.04 | Support: 158.69/158.27

Analyst View: The pair is testing upper resistance levels but remains boxed in.

Crude Oil Futures

Current Price: $90.40

Resistance: 97.12/101.06 | Support: 80.50/76.49

Analyst View: The market is stabilizing but needs to break above resistance for a durable recovery.

Spot Gold (XAU/USD)

Current Price: $4,727

Resistance: 4805/4939 | Support: 4671/4537

Analyst View: Gold is under pressure, with consolidation expected unless it can reclaim higher levels.

Dow Jones Futures

Current Price: 49,705

Resistance: 49705/50513 | Support: 48428/47784

Analyst View: The index is pausing under resistance, indicating a potential range trading scenario.

NASDAQ 100

Current Price: 26,887

Resistance: 26887/27182 | Support: 26308/25933

Analyst View: The index remains underpinned but may require consolidation before further movement.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Current Price: $75,500

Resistance: 77293/78313 | Support: 74861/73419

Analyst View: Bitcoin is holding above support, but upside momentum may require patience.

Conclusion

The market is currently influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, and economic indicators from the U.S. and UK. Investors are advised to stay informed and cautious as these developments unfold.