Market Analysis Summary - March 5, 2026
Author: Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst
Publication Date: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Macro Update
Asian shares have rebounded sharply, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) climbing by 3.9% as risk appetite recovered following a previous session's sell-off. South Korea's KOSPI index led the gains, surging by 11.2% after a historic drop, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rose by 2.5% in response to a recovery on Wall Street.
US Stock Market Performance
In the US, stocks bounced back with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.29%, the S&P 500 advancing by 0.78%, and the Dow Jones adding 0.49%. This recovery was largely driven by renewed interest in technology shares.
Geopolitical Tensions
The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with Iran launching new missile strikes on Israel. Concurrently, the US Senate has endorsed President Donald Trump's military campaign, raising concerns about the potential for a prolonged conflict in the region.
Commodity Market Insights
Concerns over supply disruptions have led to increases in oil and gold prices. Brent crude oil has moved above $84, while US crude oil is approaching $78, driven by threats to energy supplies around the Strait of Hormuz. Gold prices have also edged higher due to safe-haven demand.
China's Economic Outlook
China has set a lower growth target for 2026, aiming for a growth goal of 4.5% to 5%. The government has outlined measures to boost innovation and domestic consumption as part of its new five-year plan.
Technical Analysis
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq 100 has recovered from a three-month low of 24,316 on March 24, rising to 25,179. If it surpasses the highs from February 11 to 25 (25,344 - 25,382), these levels may act as resistance. Minor support is identified in the 25,086 - 20,057 region. The short-term outlook remains bullish while above the March 4 low of 24,796, with a neutral medium-term outlook as long as it stays above the March 3 low of 24,316.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY currency pair has struggled at resistance levels, retreating from a six-week high of ¥157.97. A break above this level could lead to a revisit of January highs at ¥159.22 - ¥159.45. Minor support is seen in the ¥156.82 - ¥156.73 region. The short-term outlook is toppish while below the March 3 high, with a neutral medium-term outlook maintaining a bullish bias above the January low of ¥152.10.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil prices have reached a 1.5-year high of $84.26. If this level is exceeded, the November 2023 to May 2024 highs at $84.49 - $84.65 may also be surpassed, with February to March 2023 peaks at $86.50 - $86.65 in sight. Minor support is identified between the March 2 high and March 4 low at $79.83 - $79.38. The short-term outlook is bullish while above the March 2 low of $75.56, with a medium-term bullish outlook above the February 26 low of $69.12.
Conclusion
The market is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with significant movements in equities and commodities driven by geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts. Investors should remain vigilant regarding the evolving situation in the Middle East and its potential impact on market dynamics.