Natural Gas Price Forecast: Potential for Bullish Reversal
Author: Bruce Powers
Published: February 17, 2026
Key Support and Current Setup
Natural gas is approaching a potential bullish reversal, contingent on maintaining support around the $2.97 level. This price point represents a new corrective low that did not find support at a long-term uptrend line or the previous swing low of $3.01 from January. The convergence of these indicators suggests a strong support zone. However, if the price drops decisively below $2.97, a more significant bearish correction could ensue.
Bullish Wedge and Breakout Triggers
A small bullish wedge pattern has formed on the daily chart for natural gas. An initial breakout is anticipated above this week’s high of $3.17, with a more reliable breakout trigger at $3.32. The upper boundary of the wedge at $3.66, along with the 200-day moving average, are critical resistance levels that must be reclaimed for natural gas to advance to higher price levels.
Reversal Targets and Fibonacci Levels
If the price breaks above $3.66, it would signal another bullish reversal, opening up higher targets starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the current downswing at $4.68. The next target would be the 50% retracement at $5.20. It is important to note that the middle line of a rising channel may coincide with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, providing additional context for potential resistance.
Downside Risk Still in Play
Despite the bullish outlook, natural gas remains susceptible to a deeper bearish correction until a one-day reversal above the current high triggers the wedge pattern. A daily close below the January low would confirm selling pressure, while a close below $2.97 would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.
Oversold Position and Long-Term Context
Currently, natural gas prices are down 60.1% from their recent highs, indicating an oversold condition. This decline is significant compared to the previous largest correction of 46.5% since 2024. The relative weakness of the current downturn suggests it may be more than just a pullback in an uptrend. Additionally, the long-term downtrend line marks the upper boundary of a large falling bull wedge, with potential support near this line if prices drop below it.
Conclusion
Natural gas is at a critical juncture, with the potential for a bullish reversal if key support levels hold. Traders should monitor the breakout levels closely and be aware of the risks associated with further declines.