Market Analysis Summary: Trump Hints at Potential Peace Deal; Market Risk Appetite Roars Back
Author: Martin Lam
Date: June 12, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Geopolitical Update: US President Donald Trump cancelled planned airstrikes against Iran, indicating progress in negotiations and hinting at a potential peace agreement this weekend.
- Market Focus: The UK’s monthly GDP data is under scrutiny, with a 3-month rolling growth rate expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.6%. A positive surprise could bolster expectations for a Bank of England rate hike later this year.
Global Market Review
The US annualised Producer Price Index (PPI) for May recorded its largest increase in three years. However, equities surged following Trump’s comments regarding the Middle East, particularly with tech stocks leading the charge. US Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened.
Gold prices increased by 3.4% as inflation fears eased due to the US-Iran developments, while crude oil prices dropped to their lowest levels since late April after the cancellation of military strikes.
Key Events Today
- 14:00 EU Germany CPI Final May
- 14:00 GB GDP April
- 14:00 GB Manufacturing & Industrial Production April
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Preliminary June
Market Analysis
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1605 / 1.1618 Support: 1.1550 / 1.1534
The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years, adjusting inflation forecasts upward while cutting growth projections. The EUR/USD strengthened alongside broader markets, buoyed by improved geopolitical conditions.
Analyst View: The pair recorded its largest daily gain in a month but is testing the 10-day moving average. A failure to break through may push the pair below 1.1550, while a breakout could lead to 1.1600.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3460 / 1.3485 Support: 1.3357 / 1.3333
The de-escalation of US-Iran tensions has weakened the dollar, lifting GBP/USD above 1.3400 to a four-day high. The pair is poised ahead of the UK GDP report and potential renewed expectations of a rate hike.
Analyst View: GBP/USD surged to near its daily high after a dip. The pair must break the 20-day moving average to maintain gains above 1.3400.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 160.44 / 160.59 Support: 159.94 / 159.79
USD/JPY moved lower with the dollar, briefly rising above the one-week low to 160.00. Concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities may limit the Yen’s decline.
Analyst View: The pair partially rebounded after support at the 20-day moving average, with bulls aiming to hold above 160.
US Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 90.42 / 91.67 Support: 83.84 / 82.24
Market optimism regarding a potential end to the conflict in the Middle East has heavily impacted crude oil prices, which fell to their lowest levels since mid-April.
Analyst View: Oil has sharply declined near this week’s lows, with key support at $85 being crucial.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4310 / 4377 Support: 4091 / 4025
Gold rebounded to $4,200 after the cancellation of strikes against Iran, consolidating its recent gains. However, expectations of a Fed rate hike may limit its upside.
Analyst View: Gold bounced back just before reaching the $4,000 mark, with immediate resistance near the 10-day moving average around $4,330.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 51102 / 51393 Support: 50176 / 49890
Investor sentiment improved after Trump hinted at a peace deal with Iran, leading US stock indices higher.
Analyst View: The Dow reclaimed the 20-day moving average and is testing 10-day resistance.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 29668 / 29928 Support: 28893 / 28567
Technology stocks rose as easing geopolitical tensions boosted risk appetite, with excitement over the SpaceX IPO contributing to gains.
Analyst View: Nasdaq formed higher lows and focuses on resistance between 29,600–29,800.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 66387 / 68628 Support: 61336 / 59133
Bitcoin rose as risk sentiment improved following Trump's announcement regarding a potential deal with Iran.
Analyst View: BTC/USD recorded its first daily gain in four days, moving above the 10-day moving average.
Conclusion
The market is reacting positively to geopolitical developments, particularly regarding US-Iran relations, which has led to increased risk appetite across various asset classes. Investors are advised to stay informed on upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical updates that may impact market dynamics.