Gold and Silver Price Forecast: US-Venezuela Tensions Test $4,500 and $80

Author: Arslan Ali

Updated: January 5, 2026

Key Points

• Gold prices have surged above $4,400 due to heightened safe-haven demand stemming from US-Venezuela tensions.
• Silver has stabilized around $75 after a volatile period, with support at the $74 level.
• Geopolitical risks in Latin America are contributing to global uncertainty, bolstering demand for precious metals.

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) began the week strongly, surpassing the $4,400 mark during the European session. This increase was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Latin America, where a US-led military operation resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Concerns have also been raised about potential military actions in Colombia and Mexico, further unsettling investors.

In addition to Latin American tensions, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, instability in Iran, and chaos in Gaza are contributing to a broader sense of uncertainty in the markets. As a result, investors are increasingly seeking safe-haven assets like gold to protect their capital.

Impact of the US Dollar

Despite a strong US dollar, which typically attracts investors during uncertain times, gold has continued to perform well. Upcoming US economic data releases, particularly regarding inflation and employment, could significantly impact gold prices. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially boosting gold prices even more.

Short-Term Forecast

In the short term, gold is expected to trade between $4,410 and $4,450. If demand for safe-haven assets remains strong, a breakout above $4,500 is possible. For silver, the next support level is at $74, and if this holds, prices could rise to between $78 and $80.

Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD)

Currently trading around $4,421, gold has rebounded from a recent drop from a peak of $4,550. The Fibonacci retracement level of $4,412 has been reclaimed, and the candles are closing above the short-term EMA, indicating a positive outlook. The next resistance levels are at $4,445 and $4,498, with recent price action showing higher lows, suggesting renewed buying interest.

The momentum indicator (RSI) is at 50, indicating a recovery in momentum. A trading strategy could involve buying near $4,410 with a target of $4,500, while placing a stop-loss below $4,340.

Silver (XAG/USD)

Silver is currently trading at $75.40 and is stabilizing after significant volatility. The price remains above the $73.20-$74.00 support zone, with a rising trendline from December. The short-term EMA near $73.50 is providing support, and the 200 EMA around $62 confirms a broader bullish setup. The candles are also making higher lows, indicating renewed buying interest.

The RSI has also recovered towards 50, suggesting that momentum is picking up. A potential trading strategy could involve buying near $74.00 with a target of $80.00, while placing a stop-loss below $72.80.

Conclusion

The geopolitical landscape, particularly the tensions involving Venezuela, is significantly influencing the demand for gold and silver. As investors seek safety amidst uncertainty, both metals are poised for potential upward movements in the near term.