Bank Earnings Preview: Can JPMorgan and Goldman Extend Wall Street’s Trading Boom?
By Daniel Carter
Published on October 9, 2026
Overview
JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are set to release their third-quarter earnings on October 13, 2026. Analysts anticipate year-over-year revenue growth for both banks, driven by trading, investment banking, and robust client activity. The combined markets revenue for the five largest U.S. investment banks is projected to rise by approximately 17% to $38.9 billion, although this marks a slowdown from the 30% growth seen in the previous quarter.
Key Earnings Estimates
| Company | Q3 Revenue Estimate | Q3 EPS Estimate | Q2 2026 Revenue | Q2 2026 EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase | Approximately $51.2 billion | Approximately $5.93 | $58.0 billion | $7.70 |
| Goldman Sachs | Approximately $17.4 billion | Approximately $15.39 | $20.34 billion | $20.98 |
These estimates reflect a decline from the exceptionally strong second-quarter results, primarily due to one-time gains rather than a downturn in core business operations.
Trading Revenue Insights
Trading revenue is expected to be a focal point in the upcoming reports. Analysts predict that the combined markets revenue for major banks will show a 17% increase from the previous year, although this is a deceleration from the previous quarter's growth. Equities trading is anticipated to be the main driver of this growth, supported by strong market volumes and demand from hedge funds.
Conversely, fixed-income, currency, and commodities trading may present mixed results due to rising Treasury yields and fluctuating commodity prices. Notably, precious metals trading could provide a boost, with U.S. banks on track to achieve record annual revenues from this sector.
JPMorgan's Performance Expectations
JPMorgan's third-quarter report will be compared against its previous exceptional performance, where its Corporate and Investment Bank saw a 35% increase in markets revenue. Key metrics to watch include:
- Equities trading performance
- Investment banking fees from various activities
- Net interest income projections
- Credit costs and provisions
- Expense management
Goldman Sachs' High Expectations
Goldman Sachs faces a challenging comparison after reporting record results in the previous quarter. Investors will be keen to see if the bank can maintain its momentum, particularly in:
- Equities and fixed-income revenue
- Advisory fees and transaction backlog
- Underwriting activity
- Asset and Wealth Management performance
Future Growth Prospects
While trading has been a significant driver of earnings growth, investment banking could play a crucial role in sustaining this momentum into 2027. The environment for mergers and acquisitions has become more complex due to rising interest rates and geopolitical uncertainties, which may impact future deal activity.
Conclusion
Both JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are expected to report strong trading and investment banking revenues, but the growth rate is likely to moderate. The performance of these banks will be closely watched as it may indicate the sustainability of Wall Street's trading boom amidst rising interest rates and economic uncertainties.