AUD/USD Outlook: Trump Address Could Trigger Breakout or Breakdown
By Matt Simpson, Market Analyst
Date: 01/04/2026
Market Context
The AUD/USD currency pair is currently at a critical juncture as traders await President Trump's address to the nation. The lack of a confirmed agenda for the address has led to uncertainty in the markets, with potential outcomes ranging from risk-on relief to a deeper risk-off sentiment. This situation places the Australian dollar in a pivotal position, influenced by both technical levels and macroeconomic headlines.
Potential Topics of Trump's Address
While the specifics of Trump's address remain unclear, several potential topics could significantly impact market sentiment:
- Middle East/Iran situation (likely)
- Military updates or signs of de-escalation (risk-on, weaker oil and US dollar)
- Implications for oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz (risk-off, stronger oil and US dollar)
- Withdrawal from NATO (likely risk-off scenario)
- Broader policy shifts or strategic decisions
- Other unexpected announcements
Risk Scenarios
One of the most significant risk-off scenarios would be a confirmation of a withdrawal from NATO, which could lead to a decline in equities and an increase in safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar. Such a move could also heighten geopolitical instability and the risk of conflict.
As traders and the public prepare for the address, volatility is expected to remain subdued, with the Australian dollar closely monitored for directional cues based on Trump's statements.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD has recently broken lower after a prolonged period of upward momentum, which had lasted eight weeks. This shift raises questions about whether Trump's address will further drive the Australian dollar down due to risk-off sentiment or provide a boost through a "Trump pump."
Key technical levels to watch include:
- Resistance near the 0.70 level
- Support levels at 0.6833 and 0.6732
A sustained break above 0.70 could indicate a shift back to a bullish trend, while failure to hold above this level may lead to further declines.