EURUSD Technical Analysis Summary
Market Overview
The recent U.S. Treasury auction of $16 billion in 20-year notes revealed weaker demand, leading to an increase in yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. The auction's high yield was set at 4.664%, which was 2 basis points higher than the when-issued level of 4.644%. This indicates a lack of interest from investors, as reflected in the bid-to-cover ratio of 2.36X, which is below the 6-month average of 2.66X. Consequently, dealers had to absorb a larger portion of the issue, taking down 17.6% compared to the average of 10.1% over the past six months.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading at a new session low, approaching a significant support zone between 1.1765 and 1.1778. This area has historical importance, having previously acted as a ceiling from late December to January 23, and later as a floor from February 2 to February 6, where price declines were halted multiple times.
If the support level holds, there is potential for a rebound towards the 50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range at 1.1830. However, if the pair breaks below 1.1765 decisively, the outlook would shift to a bearish bias, with targets set at 1.1726 and the rising 100-day moving average at 1.1687.
Technical Summary & Bias
- Immediate Support: 1.1765 – 1.1778 (major swing area; former ceiling turned floor)
- Next Downside Targets: 1.1726, then the 100-day MA at 1.1687
- Upside Rebound Target: 1.1830 (50% midpoint of the 2026 trading range)
- Bias: The near-term bias is bearish while the price remains below the previous low of 1.18034 and the 50% retracement level at 1.1830, continuing to pressure the support zone. A sustained break below this area would increase downside momentum, while a rebound above 1.1830 would shift the tone to neutral-to-bullish.