Gold Finds Some Bids Amid US Dollar Outflows

Market Overview

Gold has shown resilience despite recent struggles, particularly influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Iran conflict. The precious metal remains approximately 28.60% higher in 2025, although it is still about $200 away from its all-time high (ATH). Recent bearish trends were countered by a 2% increase from lows of $3,284, driven by renewed uncertainty from new tariff announcements.

Current Market Dynamics

US stocks are experiencing a downturn, and US Treasuries have been on a downward trend since July 1st. In contrast, cryptocurrencies are on the rise, while the US Dollar is showing slight upward movement without significant strength. This environment has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

Technical Analysis

Gold Daily Chart

The daily chart indicates that gold is reacting positively to the 2025 upward trendline, with some rebounds noted. The 50-day moving average (MA) at $3,325 is acting as immediate support, suggesting a potential pivot point for traders.

Gold 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a slightly bullish trend, with the $3,300 level acting as a significant pivot. Holding above this level could strengthen buyer sentiment, especially if US equities continue to face demand challenges due to ongoing uncertainties.

Gold 1-Hour Chart

Short-term movements are currently rangebound, with moving averages indicating a potential golden cross. However, significant price action is expected only if gold breaks above the daily high of $3,368.

Upcoming Economic Data

The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release is anticipated to have a substantial impact on gold prices:

• Miss on CPI: Bullish for gold, as it may lead to more cuts and a rally in prices.
• In-line CPI: Likely to keep gold rangebound but slightly bullish due to ongoing US asset outflows.
• Beat on CPI: Could lead to a shift in the Federal Reserve's reaction, potentially increasing US yields and negatively impacting gold demand.