Market Analysis Summary - February 6, 2026

On February 6, 2026, US stock futures experienced a decline during the Asian market session, extending losses from the previous day. This downturn was primarily influenced by hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) spending by major companies like Alphabet and Amazon.

Key Market Drivers

• Hawkish BoJ Rhetoric: A statement from BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu suggested the need for further interest rate hikes to normalize monetary policy in Japan, despite weak economic data. This strengthened the yen and pressured US equity futures.
• AI Spending Concerns: The announcement of significant AI-related investments by Alphabet and Amazon raised concerns about returns on investment, negatively impacting risk appetite.
• US Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected labor market data heightened sensitivity to upcoming economic indicators, particularly the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Market Performance

During the Asian session, the Dow Jones E-mini futures fell by 39 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and S&P 500 E-mini dropped by 104 points and 14 points, respectively. The USD/JPY currency pair fell by 0.18% to 156.740, reflecting the impact of the BoJ's hawkish stance.

US Consumer Sentiment

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is anticipated to decline from 56.4 in January to 55.0 in February, indicating a potential pullback in consumer spending, which is crucial as private consumption constitutes about 65% of US GDP.

Technical Analysis

Current technical indicators suggest a bearish near-term outlook for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, while the Dow Jones shows a bullish bias. Key levels to monitor include:

• Dow Jones: Resistance at 49,000 and support at the 50-day EMA (48,719).
• Nasdaq 100: Resistance at 25,000 and support at the 200-day EMA (24,052).
• S&P 500: Resistance at the 50-day EMA (6,899) and support at the 200-day EMA (6,555).

Outlook

While the short-term outlook remains bearish due to AI spending concerns and weak economic data, expectations of a Fed rate cut in H1 2026 support a bullish medium-term outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a significant increase in the probability of a June rate cut, which could positively influence market sentiment.

Conclusion

In summary, while the market faces short-term challenges from geopolitical risks and economic data, the potential for Fed rate cuts and positive earnings sentiment may bolster the medium-term outlook for US stock futures. Traders are advised to monitor developments from the BoJ and US economic indicators closely.