Morning Wrap: Strait of Hormuz Finally Set to Open (15.06.2026)
Key Developments
The long-awaited agreement between the United States and Iran has been reached, marking a significant turning point in geopolitical tensions. This agreement includes a 60-day extension of the ceasefire and, crucially, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil supplies.
Confirmation of the agreement came from multiple sources, including Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and was later validated by President Trump and Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi. An official signing ceremony is scheduled to take place in Switzerland.
Ceasefire and Military Operations
According to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, military operations are to cease immediately across all fronts, including Lebanon. Mediators from both nations are set to meet this week to finalize the details of the agreement.
During the ceasefire period, Iran will waive transit fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian forces will work to clear naval mines that have been deployed in the area recently.
Nuclear Concessions
A key condition of the agreement involves Iran diluting its stockpile of uranium, which currently exceeds 9,000 kg, with 440 kg enriched to near-weapons-grade levels.
Market Reactions
Commodities
Following the announcement, crude oil prices have dropped over 4%, with Brent crude now priced just under $84 per barrel and WTI around $81, marking the lowest levels since early March. Gas prices are also declining, with a MWh of gas on the Dutch TTF exchange falling below $44.
Monetary Policy
The market is revising its expectations regarding interest rate paths for major central banks, with a reduced probability of rate hikes in the US and Europe for the remainder of 2026.
Bonds and Precious Metals
This dovish shift has led to a decline in global bond yields by approximately 1–1.5%, while gold and silver prices have risen by over 2% amid improved market sentiment.
Global Stock Markets
Asian stock markets are experiencing significant gains, with the KOSPI and NIKKEI 225 both up by 4.7%. Futures contracts in Europe and the US are also showing positive trends, with the S&P 500 and DAX up by 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.
Currency Movements
G10 Currencies
The US dollar is weakening against other G10 currencies, with the Swedish krona emerging as the strongest performer, gaining 1.2% against the USD.
Emerging Markets
Emerging market currencies are also gaining against the dollar, particularly the South African rand, Hungarian forint, South Korean won, and Indian rupee, all benefiting from the easing of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Cryptocurrency Market
Bitcoin and Ethereum are capitalizing on the improved market sentiment, both seeing increases of around 3%, with Bitcoin priced at $65,800 and Ethereum at $1,720.