Gold Technical Analysis – All Eyes on the US CPI

Date: 15/07/2025 | Author: Giuseppe Dellamotta

Market Overview

Gold prices are currently experiencing a range-bound movement as traders await the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Recent bullish price action has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to the impact of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which has led to a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations. A soft CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong CPI could trigger a selloff.

Technical Analysis

Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, gold has been gradually moving higher after bouncing off a significant upward trendline. The price is approaching a resistance level at 3438, where selling pressure is expected as traders position themselves for a potential drop back towards the major trendline.

4-Hour Timeframe

The 4-hour chart indicates a minor support zone around the 3345 level. This area is anticipated to attract buyers, who will likely set defined risk parameters below this support while targeting the 3438 resistance. Conversely, sellers are looking for a break below this support to initiate a downward move towards the major trendline.

1-Hour Timeframe

In the 1-hour chart, the analysis remains consistent with the previous timeframes. Buyers are expected to find better setups around the support level, while sellers need to break below this support to open the door for further downside. The upcoming US CPI report is likely to induce significant market movements, potentially overshadowing short-term technical indicators.

Upcoming Catalysts

Key economic data releases to watch include:

• US CPI report (today)
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) data (tomorrow)
• US Jobless Claims and Retail Sales figures (Thursday)
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey (Friday)

Conclusion

Gold remains in a critical phase as it approaches key resistance and support levels. The market's reaction to the upcoming US CPI report will be pivotal in determining the short-term direction of gold prices. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility in the wake of these economic indicators.