Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Fed Minutes Put Breakout Levels in Focus
Author: Muhammad Umair
Published: July 6, 2026
Key Points
- Gold prices rebounded following weak U.S. jobs data, which lowered expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.
- The upcoming ISM services PMI and Fed minutes will be crucial in determining the continuation of this rebound.
- Silver also saw a recovery, but it requires stronger momentum to confirm a bullish trend.
Market Analysis
Gold (XAU) experienced a rally after the release of disappointing U.S. jobs data, which diminished the likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, the rebound in gold does not eliminate the risk of further declines, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that the Fed may not tolerate inflation above its target, suggesting potential rate increases later in the year despite the weak jobs report.
Investors are now closely monitoring the ISM services PMI and the Fed minutes for additional insights. If services inflation remains high and the Fed's tone is hawkish, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could rise again.
Gold Price Forecast
The daily chart for spot gold indicates a rebound from a strong support zone between $3,900 and $4,000. The price is approaching the 50 and 200 SMAs in the $4,400 to $4,500 range, with immediate resistance at $4,260, defined by a descending trend line from the March 2, 2026 highs.
A break above $4,260 could lead to a move towards $4,400, and subsequently $4,500, which aligns with the 200-day SMA. Conversely, a drop below $3,900 would invalidate short-term support and could trigger a decline towards $3,800.
Silver Price Forecast
For silver (XAG), the daily chart shows a rebound from a primary support zone at $55, with resistance at $64. A break above $64 would push prices towards $72, while failure to surpass this level could lead to a drop back to $55. As long as silver remains above the accumulation zone between $45 and $55, the overall outlook remains bullish.
Conclusion
Both gold and silver prices have rallied in response to weak U.S. jobs data, which has reduced the likelihood of a near-term Fed interest rate hike. However, the upcoming ISM services PMI and Fed minutes will be critical in shaping market expectations. Gold needs to break above $4,260 to continue its recovery, while silver must surpass $64 to gain momentum. If the Fed's tone remains hawkish, precious metals could face risks, but a fading of rate hike expectations could allow for further rebounds.