EURUSD Market Analysis Summary

Current Market Overview

The EURUSD exchange rate has recently shown signs of weakness, particularly after early week data indicated a dip to 1.1712, following resistance at the 1.1800 level. The first support level is identified at 1.5805, suggesting potential further selling pressure if the trend continues.

Upcoming Economic Events

Key speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are scheduled, including remarks from De Guidnos and Escriva at 15:30 HKT and Chief Economist Philip Lane at 18:45 HKT. These comments are anticipated to test the recent uptrend of the euro, especially ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes at 2am HKT on Thursday.

These events are crucial for the EUR/USD pair, as they may influence market sentiment and trading strategies for the upcoming sessions on Thursday and Friday.

Geopolitical Influences

The euro received some positive news as it was not included in a list of countries expected to receive tariff letters from US President Trump. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order extending the deadline for tariff implementation to August 1, primarily affecting Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand.

Stephen Miran, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, expressed optimism regarding trade talks with Europe and India, suggesting that concessions from these countries might lead to favorable outcomes.

ECB's Stance on Euro Strength

ECB President Christine Lagarde has downplayed concerns regarding the recent strength of the euro, attributing it to favorable market conditions and a robust assessment of the European economy. The ECB has successfully brought inflation closer to its 2% target, although the looming tariff situation remains a concern for market participants.

As the market anticipates the upcoming speeches and FOMC minutes, there may be opportunities for profit-taking, which could further influence the EUR/USD exchange rate.