Summary of USD Mixed Start Analysis
The article discusses the current state of the US Dollar (USD) as it begins the North American trading session, highlighting a mixed performance against major currencies such as the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), and British Pound (GBP). The analysis, provided by Greg Michalowski, emphasizes the lack of a clear trend in the market, with price movements largely influenced by key hourly moving averages and established swing zones.
EURUSD: The Battle for the 100-Hour MA
The EURUSD pair is experiencing a struggle as sellers aim to keep the price below the 100-hour moving average. A significant support zone exists between 1.1765 and 1.1778, which buyers have consistently defended. Conversely, the falling 200-hour moving average poses a challenge for bullish traders. The outlook remains neutral-to-bearish as long as the price stays below these short-term averages.
USDJPY: Accelerating Past Resistance
In contrast, the USDJPY pair is showing signs of upward momentum following volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan and comments from the Prime Minister. A key pivot area between 156.20 and 156.28 is identified as a risk-defining level, with a positive outlook if the price remains above this range. The recent break above a top-side trendline suggests potential acceleration towards February highs, with the 61.8% retracement level at 155.592 providing additional support.
GBPUSD: Trapped Between Averages
The GBPUSD pair mirrors the non-trending behavior of the EURUSD, fluctuating between its 100 and 200-hour moving averages. Resistance is found at a defined swing zone and the 200-hour moving average, with a break above 1.3536 necessary for further upside potential. The 100-hour moving average currently serves as a near-term support level. The outlook indicates that traders are positioned at the edges of the weekly range, with significant movement expected upon a break above or below these averages.
Traders' Note
In this non-trending environment, established lines are crucial for traders. Many are successfully "leaning" against these moving averages for small pip gains, but substantial movement is anticipated once the market breaks out of these confined ranges.