Summary of Economic Events - February 9, 2026

Overview of Last Week’s Key Economic Events

Last week presented a mixed bag of global economic data. In the United States, overall economic activity showed relative strength, although there were signs of a cooling labor market. Key indicators such as the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, including ISM indices, indicated strong expansion levels, the highest since 2022, alongside an improvement in consumer confidence. However, this was juxtaposed with a notable increase in job cuts, weaker private sector hiring, and a decline in job openings.

In the euro area, the European Central Bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged due to ongoing weakness in the industrial sector, easing inflation, and declining retail sales, which reflect persistent growth pressures. The Bank of England also maintained steady rates, with a notable split within the Monetary Policy Committee. PMI data indicated broad improvement, except for the construction sector, which remains in contraction.

Switzerland reported relatively positive data with stronger retail sales and improved economic activity. Canada experienced a lower unemployment rate despite weak employment growth. In Australia, a recent rate hike and strong PMI readings, particularly in services, supported a positive economic outlook. Japan, however, recorded weaker household spending, although there was improved activity in manufacturing and services. In China, a divergence in data persisted, with official figures indicating contraction while Caixin indices showed modest improvement, highlighting ongoing uncertainty regarding the pace of China’s economic recovery.

Market Analysis

USD / JPY

The US dollar–Japanese yen pair reached 157.25, its highest level since January 23, 2026, closing at 157.18. Recent Japanese economic data indicated weaker performance, with declines in consumer prices, industrial production, and household spending. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 56, indicating moderate bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting continued positive momentum for the pair.

McDonald’s

McDonald’s shares have risen approximately 7% year-to-date. The market is anticipating the company’s earnings release on February 11, 2026, with expectations for earnings of USD 3.03 per share, up from USD 2.83 in the previous quarter. Revenues are projected to reach USD 6.80 billion, an increase from USD 6.39 billion. The RSI is currently at 73, indicating overbought territory, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, reinforcing a positive outlook for the stock.

Crude Oil

Crude oil prices fell by about 2.5% last week after five consecutive weeks of gains, closing near USD 68 per barrel. This pullback was attributed to easing geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, as well as discussions between Ukraine and Russia aimed at achieving a truce. The RSI stands at 58, indicating continued bullish momentum, while the MACD shows a bullish crossover, supporting a constructive outlook for oil prices.

FTSE 100 Index

The UK’s FTSE 100 index continues to rise, reaching 10,482 points on February 4, 2026, marking its highest level on record. The index is up nearly 5% year-to-date, outperforming other European benchmarks. This strong performance is largely attributed to the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%. A notable split within the Monetary Policy Committee, with four out of nine members voting for a rate cut, has reinforced expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year, providing bullish support to UK equities. The RSI is at 63, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover, confirming positive momentum for the index.

Key Events This Week

Markets are closely monitoring several important economic releases this week:

• Tuesday: US retail sales data.
• Wednesday: China’s consumer and producer price indices, US private nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and US crude oil inventories.
• Thursday: UK GDP and industrial production data, along with US initial jobless claims and existing home sales.
• Friday: Eurozone GDP and US consumer price index data.