Precious Metals After the Correction: Stabilisation, Not a New Rally
By Łukasz Zembik | 6 February 2026
Market Overview
The precious metals market has experienced a partial rebound following a significant correction, yet valuations remain high compared to early 2026 levels. Gold is currently over 12% higher than at the start of the year, while silver has seen a modest increase of around 4%. Despite this rebound, the sustainability of these price levels is under scrutiny.
Unusual Price Dynamics
Typically, gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and inflation expectations. However, the recent surge in gold prices has not been supported by these traditional drivers. Real interest rates have not significantly decreased, and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. remain stable, hovering just below 2.5%. The market anticipates only two additional rate cuts to approximately 3% by the end of the year. Valuation models indicate that gold is still priced about $2,000 per ounce above levels justified by macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting a potential for further corrections.
Safe Haven Demand
The primary factor contributing to gold's overvaluation is its increasing role as a safe haven amid global uncertainties. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and China's assertive posture towards Taiwan, have heightened global risk perceptions. Additionally, the freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves has raised concerns among central banks regarding the safety of reserve assets. These factors, combined with the unpredictability of U.S. economic policy under former President Donald Trump, have diminished confidence in traditional safe assets.
Market Outlook
While the recent price movements indicate that a sharp decline in gold prices is unlikely, as declines are often met with buying interest, the potential for significant gains appears limited. The most probable scenario for the medium term is a stabilization of gold and silver prices, followed by a moderate recovery. However, this recovery is expected to be accompanied by increased volatility and slower growth compared to the beginning of the year.