NASDAQ Technical Analysis Summary - July 4, 2025
Current Trend
As of July 4, 2025, NASDAQ futures are experiencing a short-term pullback following a strong upward breakout. The market had previously broken above the all-time high from December 24, forming a rising channel. After a brief consolidation and retest of the breakout zone, prices moved higher, surpassing the midpoint of the ascending channel.
Price Action
Currently, NASDAQ futures are down approximately 0.6%, indicating a meaningful decline in the context of recent bullish momentum. This pullback is occurring during a period of lighter liquidity due to the U.S. holiday, which may amplify price movements.
Importance of Price Action
Even though U.S. equity markets are closed for Independence Day, NASDAQ futures continue to trade, influenced by global flows, particularly from Europe. This trading session can provide critical price signals, especially when futures deviate from expected behavior. The current rejection from the mid-channel suggests a temporary retreat by buyers.
Key Support Levels
The primary support zone to monitor is between 22,830 and 22,855, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If this area fails to hold, the next significant level is 22,775, corresponding with the VWAP from July 2. A decisive break below this VWAP could signal a broader correction or a shift in trend.
Overall Trend Outlook
The larger trend remains bullish as long as prices stay within the rising channel structure. However, the current pullback may indicate a cooling of momentum in the short term. If buyers can defend the lower channel edge and the VWAP, a new upward leg could be possible. Conversely, a clean break below these levels may necessitate a more cautious or neutral stance.
Trader Considerations
With reduced U.S. market participation, traders should exercise caution. Key support tests around 22,830 to 22,855 will be crucial in determining the next market move. A break below 22,775 should be taken seriously, as it would indicate a shift below both the channel and the VWAP reference point.