Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Triangle Squeeze – Is an $88 Breakout Next?

Published: March 25, 2026

Key Points

• WTI Crude is compressing near $88 in a tight triangle; a decisive break could trigger a move toward $97.33.
• Diplomatic signals are easing supply fears in the Strait of Hormuz, knocking oil back from recent $116 peaks.
• Natural Gas holds a critical $2.86 horizontal support, but rejection at $3.01 limits any near-term upside.

Market Overview

The WTI crude price has recently slumped to the $87-$89 range, down approximately 3% to 5.5% after a dramatic reversal from $92.40. The energy market remains highly sensitive to global events, particularly concerning supply uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial as it handles about 20% of the world’s seaborne oil. Initial tensions in the region had boosted crude prices by 5%, but recent diplomatic efforts have eased fears, leading to a price decline.

Natural Gas Futures Analysis

Natural Gas futures are trading around $2.888, hovering near a critical support zone at $2.866. The price has recently broken below a rising trendline from late February lows, indicating a weakening bullish trend. The 50-period moving average is acting as dynamic resistance at around $3.01, while the 200-period moving average adds further pressure at approximately $2.95. Small-bodied candlesticks suggest buyers are attempting to defend the $2.86 level, but repeated rejections above $3.01 limit upside potential.

Key Levels for Natural Gas

Key resistance levels are at $3.014 and $3.087, while a break below $2.866 could expose further downside to $2.823 and $2.778.

Trade Idea: Consider selling if the price breaks below $2.866, targeting $2.823 with a stop loss above $2.95.

WTI Crude Oil Analysis

WTI crude is currently around $88.77, consolidating between a rising trendline at $86.75 and a descending trendline from the highs of $116.00. The price action has formed a tight triangle, indicating a potential breakout soon. The 50-day moving average is at $92.65, serving as immediate resistance, while the 200-day moving average at $86.75 aligns with structural support.

Key Levels for WTI Crude

Resistance levels are at $92.65 and $97.33, while support levels are at $86.75 and $81.53. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below 45, indicating some bearish momentum.

Trade Idea: Buy above $92.65 with a target of $97.33, and a stop loss below $88.00.

Brent Oil Analysis

Brent crude is hovering near $95 after breaking below a trendline that had supported prices since early March. Recent candles indicate a clear rejection around $105, suggesting lower highs in a weakening trend. The 50-day moving average is declining, adding to the downward pressure, with the price currently below the key pivot point of $98.35.

Key Levels for Brent Oil

Support is at $92.72 and $88.00, while resistance is at $98.35 and $105.09. The RSI is around 40, indicating fading momentum.

Trade Idea: Sell Brent if the price drops below $95, targeting $92 with a stop loss above $98.

Conclusion

The oil and natural gas markets are currently experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels to make informed trading decisions.