Zcash Price Forecast: Potential 30% Dip Despite Grayscale’s Endorsement

Author: Yashu Gola

Published: March 31, 2026

Key Points

• Zcash (ZEC) is struggling to break its 50-week EMA near $230, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
• Technical analysis suggests a potential pullback towards the 100-week EMA around $166, which would represent a 30% decline from current levels.
• Macro pressures, including elevated oil prices due to US-Iran tensions, are raising inflation risks and tightening monetary policy.

Current Market Analysis

Zcash is currently facing a critical technical challenge as it has failed to secure a decisive close above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $230 throughout March. The repeated rejections at this resistance level suggest that bullish momentum is fading, especially following a significant price rally earlier in the year.

As of the latest updates, ZEC is attempting to reclaim the $230 level, but the overall chart structure remains fragile, indicating a higher likelihood of a deeper pullback in the near future. The next major support level is identified at the 100-week EMA, which is positioned around $166. A decline to this level would equate to a substantial 30% drop from current prices.

Macro Economic Factors

Ongoing tensions related to the US-Iran conflict have kept oil prices elevated, which in turn increases the risk of persistent inflation and a tighter monetary environment. For speculative assets like ZEC, this scenario typically results in a weaker risk appetite among investors, limiting the potential for breakout movements near key resistance levels.

Grayscale's Perspective

Despite the bearish outlook, Grayscale has presented a more optimistic long-term view for Zcash. The asset management firm argues that the market may be undervaluing Zcash's financial privacy features, especially in an era increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence and digital surveillance. Grayscale highlights that Zcash's optional shielding capabilities could become more valuable as AI technologies enhance the ability to trace transactions on transparent blockchains.

Additionally, Grayscale notes that the on-chain usage of Zcash is improving, with shielded transactions accounting for approximately 86.5% of the total transaction count as of mid-March. The firm also points out that new capital is entering the ecosystem to support wallet development and mining, suggesting that Zcash may be entering a new phase of growth.

Conclusion

While Zcash may face a correction towards $166 in the short term, its long-term potential could strengthen if investors begin to recognize privacy as a fundamental feature of monetary systems rather than a niche aspect of cryptocurrency.