Technical Analysis of USD Movements
In a recent analysis by Greg Michalowski, the current state of the USD is examined, highlighting its recent decline but noting that it is off its lowest levels. The focus is on three major currency pairs: EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD, with an emphasis on technical indicators and key levels that traders should monitor.
EURUSD Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair experienced an upward movement during the Asian session, successfully reclaiming the 100-hour moving average at 1.1799. However, the rally faced strong resistance near the 1.1830–1.1832 range, which includes the 50% midpoint of the 2026 range and the falling 200-hour moving average. The inability to break through this resistance led to a shift in momentum back to sellers, pushing the price below the 100-hour MA and down to a support zone at 1.1765–1.1778, where buying interest emerged. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.1800, indicating a tight battle zone for traders.
- Support: 1.1765–1.1778
- Resistance: 1.1830–1.1832
A breakout on either side of these levels is expected to determine the next directional move for the pair.
USDJPY Technical Analysis
The USDJPY pair saw a significant decline following recent tariff news, breaking below its 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement level at 154.320, indicating a shift in short-term momentum to the downside. However, the selloff paused just ahead of the 200-hour moving average at 153.82, allowing buyers to re-enter the market and push the price back above the 100-hour MA towards a confluence area near 154.96, where the 100-day moving average and the 50% retracement align. Sellers then stepped in at this resistance, causing a rotation lower.
The current trading position is near the 100-hour moving average, making it a pivotal point for traders:
- A move below the 100-hour MA keeps downside pressure towards 153.82.
- A move above 154.96 would shift the bias back to a bullish outlook.
GBPUSD Technical Analysis
Last week, the GBPUSD pair fell to its key 200-day moving average at 1.34426. Although it briefly dipped below this level, the downside momentum stalled, preventing sellers from pushing further. This failure to break led to a rebound, with the price climbing back towards the falling 100-hour moving average. Recently, the pair managed to push above the 100-hour MA, but gains were capped by resistance in a defined swing zone between 1.3526 and 1.3536. Sellers re-entered the market, rotating the price back below the 100-hour MA, targeting the 1.3400 swing level.
The ongoing back-and-forth trading has seen the price reclaim the 100-hour moving average once again, which now serves as a critical barometer:
- Above the 100-hour MA: bias tilts more bullish.
- Below the 100-hour MA: sellers regain short-term control.
In summary, the technical analysis of these currency pairs indicates critical levels that traders should watch closely, as movements around these levels could signal significant shifts in market sentiment and direction.