Oil Price Forecast: U.S.-Iran Deal Impact
By Muhammad Umair | Updated: June 23, 2026
Key Points
- Brent and WTI crude oil prices are under pressure due to the U.S.-Iran deal, which reduces the war premium in the markets.
- Uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz may lead to volatility as traders await normal tanker movement.
- Weak technical momentum is affecting crude oil prices, but tight supply conditions could support prices if Middle East risks escalate.
Current Market Overview
As of the latest updates, Brent crude oil is trading at $78.80, while WTI crude oil is below $74.30. The market is currently assessing the implications of the U.S.-Iran peace talks and the stability of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Although some tankers have begun to move, the flow is not yet back to normal, contributing to ongoing price volatility.
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The decline in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which has reached its lowest level since June 1983, indicates a tight supply situation. This could support oil prices if the situation stabilizes. However, if the peace deal falters or if Iran delays inspections or blocks shipping, both Brent and WTI prices could rise as traders rebuild the risk premium.
Technical Analysis
WTI Crude Oil
The daily chart for WTI crude oil shows strong bearish pressure after a peak at $120. The price has broken below $78 and is approaching a long-term support zone of $66 to $74. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal from this support zone. A break below $66 could push prices toward $60.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude oil has also experienced negative price action, breaking below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $82 and heading towards a support area of $72 to $74. A further decline below $72 could lead to prices around $67.50. The RSI indicates negative pressure, complicating the outlook amidst ongoing Middle East uncertainties.
Conclusion
Oil prices remain under pressure following the breach of critical support levels. WTI crude oil is supported in the $66 to $74 range, while Brent crude oil is supported at $72 to $74. These levels may attract buyers as long as Middle East risks persist. However, the breach of $80 has shifted the trend negatively in the short term. Prices are likely to remain volatile due to uncertainties surrounding the U.S.-Iran deal and the Strait of Hormuz. A recovery in WTI crude oil requires a break above $87.