ASX 200 Outlook: Stabilization Attempt Meets Hormuz Headwinds
By Cedric Thompson | Published: April 24, 2026
Key Points
- The closure and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent crude prices above $100, creating an energy shock impacting the ASX 200 Index.
- Healthcare stocks have seen a significant decline of 6%, while banks are on a nine-day losing streak, offset by gains in technology and energy sectors.
- Despite a modest rebound in April PMIs, rising input costs and petrol prices at $2.40/litre have led traders to price in a 72% chance of a rate hike to 4.35% in May.
Market Overview
The Australian market is experiencing a disconnect as Wall Street continues to rally, while the ASX 200 struggles due to supply chain anxieties. The Strait of Hormuz is currently a major factor influencing market dynamics, with reports of gunfire on commercial vessels pushing Brent crude prices higher, which is expected to lead to a secondary wave of inflation.
Inflation Concerns
April's flash PMIs indicate a slight recovery in domestic activity, with manufacturing rising to 51.0 and services to 50.3. However, input-cost inflation has reached its highest level since August 2022, putting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in a hawkish position. The cash rate is currently at 4.10%, and with upcoming CPI data, a rate hike to 4.35% is anticipated.
Sector Performance
The market has bifurcated into a "commodity hedge" trade. While healthcare stocks are struggling, energy stocks like Karoon Energy and Beach Energy have surged significantly. The technology sector is also showing signs of stabilization, indicating institutional accumulation despite broader market concerns.
Technical Analysis
Technical indicators suggest a cautious recovery in the ASX 200. The 15-brick Renko chart shows green recovery bricks after testing the 8,740 support level, indicating a potential rebound. However, a decisive push above 8,835 is needed to confirm a bullish trend.
Market Parameters
Current Trend Direction: Neutral
Bias: Positive
Key Support Levels: 8,760–8,740; 8,680
Key Resistance Levels: 8,835; 8,900–8,920
Medium-Term Path: The ASX 200 is expected to continue its erratic upward movement towards the 8,900 resistance zone, supported by the mining and energy sectors.