Brent Crude Oil Tests $95 per Barrel
Date: 22 July 2026
Overview
Brent crude oil prices have surged past the $95 per barrel mark for the first time in six weeks, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global crude oil supply security. This price movement comes just before the rolling over of futures contracts, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment.
Market Dynamics
After experiencing two months of sharp declines, crude oil prices have rebounded with an increase exceeding 30%. Such substantial growth is rare, having only occurred a few times in the last 25 years. The primary catalyst for this increase is the postponement of potential peace talks between the USA and Iran, with Iran confirming that no discussions are currently taking place. Additionally, former President Trump has indicated a potential escalation of military actions if Houthi rebels target shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial trade route for oil transport.
Geopolitical Factors
The risk of supply disruptions in the Bab al-Mandab Strait has led investors to add a risk premium to oil prices. This has resulted in some shipping companies altering their routes, which increases transportation costs and extends delivery times. The market is currently more influenced by geopolitical factors than by short-term supply and demand data, despite indications of inventory stabilization and increased production in some oil-producing countries.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Brent crude is not only testing the $95 per barrel level but has also broken through key resistance levels, including the 50.0% retracement of the last downward impulse and the 100-period moving average. The next significant resistance zone is identified around $98-$100 per barrel. However, with the upcoming rollover of futures contracts, prices may temporarily decline to around $90 per barrel. If peace prospects remain bleak, upward pressure on oil prices is likely to resume post-rollover.