US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Retests $101 on Triangle Breakout

Published: June 25, 2026

Key Points

• Sticky core inflation and fiscal deficits bolster the US Dollar's strength amid monetary policy divergence.
• DXY holds at $101.54, showing strong bullish continuation within an ascending channel.
• EUR/USD defends $1.1362 trendline support, while GBP/USD holds $1.3169 channel floor.

Market Overview

As of June 25, the US dollar, euro, and sterling are influenced by diverging monetary policies and economic conditions. The US core inflation remains persistent, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on easing, which supports the dollar's strength. Strong domestic economic activity and the dollar's status as a reserve currency further enhance its demand.

In contrast, the euro is affected by uneven economic growth and the European Central Bank's focus on price stability. The differing fiscal positions and inflation dynamics within the eurozone make the euro sensitive to growth and wage developments.

For the British pound, the Bank of England faces challenges in managing services-related inflation while acknowledging softer growth. Domestic fiscal policies and labor market data will continue to influence the pound, alongside the relative policy settings compared to the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank.

DXY Analysis

The DXY index is currently trading at $101.54, with bullish continuation candles indicating a potential rise towards $103.09. The index has shown a sequence of higher highs, suggesting strong buyer control. The daily RSI above 55 confirms the bullish trend, and the volume profile indicates that the breakout area at $100.36 has become a support level.

Trade Idea: Buy at $101.54, targeting $103.09, with a stop-loss at $100.36.

GBP/USD Analysis

The GBP/USD exchange rate is trading at $1.3169. After facing resistance at the 50-period moving average, the pair is finding support near $1.3109. A higher wave low suggests buyers are entering the market, supported by rejection wicks.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.3169, targeting $1.3320, with a stop-loss at $1.3100.

EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.1362, attempting to find support in a major demand zone after a decline from $1.1927. Despite a bearish trend indicated by lower highs, the demand zone is attracting buyers.

Trade Idea: Buy at $1.1362, targeting $1.1620, with a stop-loss at $1.1300.

Conclusion

The macroeconomic backdrop remains characterized by divergence in inflation, fiscal policy, and growth, which will continue to influence currency flows. Investors are closely monitoring central bank policies to gauge the balance between sustaining growth and controlling inflation.