Market Quick Take - 09 February 2026

Market Drivers and Catalysts

• Equities: A semi-led rebound in the US, with Europe rallying and Japan extending record strength post-election.
• Volatility: A calm rebound is noted, but key U.S. data is on the horizon, with downside protection still in demand.
• Digital Assets: Crypto markets are stabilizing, but ETF flows remain cautious and confidence is fragile.
• Currencies: The dollar trades softer amid renewed risk appetite and post-election yen strength.
• Commodities: Precious metals recover strongly, while oil prices drift lower due to easing tensions.
• Fixed Income: Treasuries slip as risk appetite returns; Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields rise due to fiscal concerns.

Macro Headlines

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling party achieved a significant post-war victory, securing a two-thirds super majority in the lower house, facilitating easier legislative processes and reopening discussions on constitutional amendments.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted the influence of Chinese traders on recent gold price volatility. Additionally, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson expressed confidence in current monetary policy, while House Minority Leader Jeffries announced that Democrats would not support further funding for the Department of Homeland Security without reforms.

Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to limit their holdings of U.S. Treasuries to mitigate concentration risks and market volatility.

Macro Calendar Highlights

Key events include:

• 1600 – NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations
• Central bank speakers from ECB and Fed throughout the day.

Earnings Events

Notable earnings reports include:

• Today: Apollo Global Management, Softbank Corp
• Tuesday: Coca-Cola, AstraZeneca, Gilead Sciences, and more.
• Wednesday: Cisco, McDonald's, T-Mobile US, and others.
• Thursday: Hermes, L’Oreal, Applied Materials, and more.
• Friday: Safran, Enbridge, NatWest, and others.

Equities Overview

In the U.S., semiconductors led Friday's rebound, with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom each rising over 7%. The Dow surpassed 50,000, while Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs saw significant gains. However, Amazon's stock slipped due to increased AI infrastructure spending concerns.

In Europe, the risk-on mood was evident, with ASML and Vinci performing well, while Stellantis faced a sharp decline due to significant charges related to its strategy reset.

In Asia, Japan's market surged following Takaichi's election victory, with the Nikkei hitting new records, while Singapore's market showed mixed results.

Volatility Insights

Market volatility decreased as equity markets rebounded, with the VIX closing at 17.76. However, investors remain cautious ahead of key U.S. labor and inflation data, which could impact interest rate expectations.

Digital Assets Update

Crypto markets are stabilizing, with Bitcoin above $70,000 and Ethereum near $2,100. ETF flows indicate cautious sentiment, with significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, reflecting investor hesitance.

Fixed Income Analysis

U.S. Treasury yields rose as China urged banks to limit exposure to U.S. Treasuries. In Japan, JGB yields increased following Takaichi's victory, raising fiscal concerns.

Commodities Overview

Gold prices rebounded above USD 5,000 after a volatile week, while silver also recovered. Oil prices edged lower due to easing tensions in the Middle East.

Currencies Update

The yen strengthened against the dollar following Japan's election results, while the dollar showed weakness amid improved global risk sentiment.