Solana Price Prediction: SOL May Drop 15% After Key Breakout Failure

Published: October 8, 2026

Author: Yashu Gola

Key Points

• Solana (SOL) is at risk of a 13%–17% correction towards the $95–$100 range as it tests a significant resistance zone between $115–$125.
• The ascending trendline and the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $98 could provide crucial support for a potential bullish rebound.
• A bullish fractal from 2023 suggests that if SOL reclaims the $125 level, it could rally by 116% towards $248.

Current Market Analysis

As of October 8, SOL was trading around $117, down approximately 1.79%. The cryptocurrency is currently testing a horizontal resistance zone that previously acted as support throughout much of 2025 before breaking down in early 2026. This zone has now turned into a resistance level, complicating SOL's attempt to reclaim it.

Resistance and Support Levels

The resistance zone overlaps with Solana’s 100-week EMA, which is currently at approximately $118.33, increasing the likelihood of a bearish rejection. If SOL fails to break through this resistance, it could decline towards its ascending support trendline, which is approaching the $95–$100 region, indicating a potential drop of about 13%–17% from current levels.

This downside target aligns with the 20-week EMA near $97.91, making it a critical area for buyers to defend.

Technical Indicators

The weekly relative strength index (RSI) has risen to around 60, indicating improving bullish momentum. However, this does not eliminate the possibility of a near-term pullback as SOL tests the overhead resistance. A decisive weekly close above $125 would weaken the bearish outlook and suggest that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure.

Long-Term Outlook

Despite the near-term correction risk, Solana's broader weekly structure resembles a bullish setup that preceded its major rally in late 2023. During that time, SOL repeatedly tested resistance around $25–$28 while establishing higher lows along an ascending support trendline. A similar pattern is emerging in 2026, with SOL forming higher lows beneath the current resistance zone.

If SOL can rebound from the support trendline and achieve a weekly breakout above $125, it would strengthen the case for a longer-term advance towards $248, approximately 116% above current prices. Conversely, a sustained breakdown below the ascending trendline would invalidate the bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.

Conclusion

In summary, while Solana faces potential short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains optimistic if key resistance levels can be reclaimed. Traders should closely monitor the price action around the $115–$125 resistance zone and the $95–$100 support area for indications of future movements.