Weekly Market Insights - NYSE MAC Desk

Published on 3/13/26

Market Overview:

The major indices closed lower this week, with the DOW at 46,558 (-119), S&P 500 at 6,632 (-40), and Russell 2000 at 2,480 (-9). The NYSE FANG+ Index fell to 14,611 (-226). Oil prices rose to $103.58/barrel (+$3.12), while gold decreased to $5,025/oz (-$101). Bitcoin saw a notable increase, reaching approximately $71.4k (+1187).

Geopolitical Context:

The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, has created a new framework for market analysis, termed "Before Iran / After Iran" (BI/AI). Historical patterns suggest that U.S. equities often recover quickly from military conflicts, but the current macroeconomic environment, characterized by high inflation and rising interest rates, complicates this dynamic.

Market Reactions:

Since the onset of military actions against Iran, the S&P 500 has declined approximately 3%. Technical indicators show a breakdown, with the index closing below key moving averages. The market is currently weighing the potential for a rally against the risks of prolonged conflict and elevated oil prices, which are contributing to inflationary pressures.

Sector Performance:

Energy was the best-performing sector this week, while financials struggled due to concerns over private credit. Defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples showed resilience, while discretionary spending is under pressure as consumer sentiment wanes.

Global Market Trends:

Global equities mirrored U.S. trends, with European indices down modestly and Asia facing varied performances. India was particularly affected by oil import reliance, while Japan's market was pressured by energy concerns.

Commodities and Crypto:

Oil prices surged, with Brent crude remaining above $100/barrel. The crypto market outperformed equities, with Bitcoin and Ethereum experiencing volatility but ultimately closing higher for the week.

Economic Data:

Inflation data was overshadowed by geopolitical events, with CPI and PCE reports aligning with expectations. Labor market data showed slight improvement, but overall economic indicators remain mixed.

Looking Ahead:

Next week, central bank meetings will be pivotal, alongside ongoing developments in the Iranian conflict. Key earnings reports and economic data releases will also shape market sentiment.