Natural Gas Price Forecast: Critical Breakout Test Ahead
By Bruce Powers | Updated: Oct 07, 2026
Overview
The article discusses the current state of natural gas prices, which are testing the critical 200-day moving average. This level is seen as a significant resistance point, and the outcome of this test could determine the future price trajectory of natural gas.
Current Market Conditions
As of the latest update, natural gas prices have risen to $3.127, approaching the 200-day moving average near $3.12. This level is crucial as it represents a dynamic resistance point. A successful breakout above this average could lead to higher price targets, while a failure to maintain above it could indicate weakness in the current bullish trend.
Technical Analysis
Resistance and Support Levels
The article highlights that the recent price action has shown a rejection of lower prices at the 20-week moving average, indicating strengthening support. The previous week's low of $2.997 serves as a critical support level, and a move above the last week's high of $3.18 would further confirm bullish momentum.
Higher Low Formation
A higher swing low was established at $2.912, coinciding with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing. This suggests that buyers are defending higher price levels, supporting the potential for another breakout attempt above the 200-day moving average.
Market Compression and Future Outlook
The article notes that the weekly chart shows increasing price compression, which could lead to a significant price movement following this period of consolidation. Given the bullish indicators, the expectation is for a potential upward expansion, making the current test of the 200-day moving average particularly significant.