Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Gulf Supply Risks Rise as WTI and Brent Break Higher
By Arslan Ali | Published: Sep 08, 2026
Key Points
- Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and reduced Hormuz shipping underpin the geopolitical supply premium in crude markets.
- Lower Middle East crude shipments and fresh threats to Saudi energy infrastructure add to near-term supply uncertainty.
- A 4.5 million-barrel decline in U.S. commercial crude inventories provides further support for WTI.
Market Overview
Oil market trends are increasingly reflecting higher supply risk premiums due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The resurgence of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with a slowdown in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has significantly impacted U.S. Gulf Coast exports. Recent data indicates that only seven vessels crossed Hormuz on a recent Monday, down from eight the previous day. Iran has retaliated against U.S. actions and has threatened further attacks, including the establishment of maritime exclusion zones in the Gulf, heightening tensions in this critical energy shipping corridor.
Middle East crude shipments have plummeted from 18 million barrels per day (bpd) before the conflict to approximately 11 million bpd. Although alternative pipelines and increased non-OPEC production have mitigated some of the impact, supply risks remain significant.
Recent Developments
Supply risks escalated following an attack by Iran-aligned Houthi forces on Saudi Arabia, injuring 73 individuals at Saudi energy facilities. The Saudi energy ministry has announced measures to protect its infrastructure while maintaining operations.
Despite OPEC+'s efforts, the market has not seen immediate impacts, but supply risks are expected to dominate in the coming weeks. Additionally, U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels to 424.5 million barrels, further supporting U.S. oil markets.
Natural Gas Market Insights
Globally, competition for natural gas supply is intensifying, particularly due to disruptions in Qatari LNG supply. European gas storage levels are nearing record lows ahead of winter, increasing the demand for U.S. LNG exports. However, robust domestic production has provided a buffer against potential supply shocks.
Overall, the fundamental bias for WTI and Brent oil remains bullish, while natural gas is moderately bullish.
Technical Analysis
Natural Gas
Natural gas is currently trading around $2.95, maintaining a rising trendline and support around $2.88–$2.90. The price has shown higher lows, indicating a bullish structure. Key resistance levels are at $2.97, $3.03, and $3.08, while support levels are at $2.92, $2.88, $2.82, and $2.78.
WTI Crude Oil
WTI crude oil is consolidating around $94.01, with a bullish channel structure supported by higher lows. The key resistance level is at $94.89, with potential targets at $97.23 and $99.85. Support levels to watch include $92.15, $89.89, and $88.99.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude is trading at $98.71, having broken above the $96.95 resistance level. The next target is $99.41, with support at $94.15. A sustained move above $94.15 could lead to further upward momentum, while a break below this level would invalidate the bullish outlook.