Market Analysis Summary: FTSE 100, EUR/USD, and WTI Oil

Written by Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst

Publication Date: Monday, 13 April 2026

Macro Update

The collapse of US-Iran negotiations has triggered a risk-off sentiment in the markets. The failure to reach an agreement has intensified geopolitical tensions, raising concerns about a prolonged conflict in the region.

As a result, oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions following the US's announcement of a blockade on Iranian ports, which threatens oil flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Global equities have declined as the energy shock weighs heavily on economic outlooks, with Asian markets falling and US futures moving lower due to worries about rising inflation and slower growth. Notably, Japan's 10-year government bond yields have reached a 28-year high, reflecting increasing inflation pressures and changing policy expectations.

The US dollar has strengthened as investors seek safe-haven assets amid the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while inflation risks are rising as central banks reassess their monetary policies in light of elevated energy prices.

FTSE 100 Analysis

The FTSE 100 has entered a risk-off phase, reacting to the US President's naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The index has dipped below Friday's low of 10,567, with potential support at the 18 March high of 10,447 and the 55-day simple moving average at 10,391.

Short-term outlook: Consolidating below the April high of 10,724.

Medium-term outlook: Bullish as long as it remains above the early April low of 10,252.

EUR/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has dipped but remains in a bullish trend, having found support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.1671. A rise above last week's high of $1.1740 could target the $1.1800 region, with solid support in the $1.1648 to $1.1631 range.

Short-term outlook: Bullish while above the 8 April low of $1.1589.

Medium-term outlook: Neutral with a bullish bias while above the 6 April low of $1.1506.

WTI Oil Analysis

WTI crude oil prices have rallied to around $104 per barrel, nearing the late March peak of $106.86, driven by renewed tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The bullish trend is expected to continue as long as WTI remains above the 9 April low of $95.25.

However, if prices fall below the 8 April low of $91.05, a further decline towards the 23 March low of $84.37 may occur.

Short-term outlook: Bullish while above $91.05.

Medium-term outlook: Bullish while above the 8 April low of $91.05.