Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Wedge Signal Support Test

Author: Bruce Powers

Published: March 4, 2026

Overview

The article discusses the current state of gold prices, highlighting a recent breakdown of a rising wedge pattern that indicates potential short-term weakness. Despite this, the broader bullish structure for gold remains intact, suggesting underlying demand may still be strong.

Current Market Conditions

Gold has been consolidating, establishing a narrow trading range following a sharp decline. The price found support near the 20-day moving average, with a low of $5,082 recorded. However, the relationship with the 10-day moving average, currently at $5,161, shows signs of weakening, as gold closed below this average for the first time in six days.

Technical Analysis

Rising Wedge Breakdown

The article notes a significant bearish signal from the breakdown of a rising wedge pattern, which occurred on Tuesday. This breakdown was confirmed by a close below the 10-day average and a drop to a seven-day low of $4,996. The failure to maintain support near the 20-day moving average further emphasizes the increasing selling pressure.

Key Support Levels

The 50-day moving average, currently at $4,843, is identified as a critical support level. A decline towards this average could stabilize prices, as it has historically defined the lower boundary of the rising trend since August 2025. A decisive break below this level could lead to further declines.

Broader Market Structure

Despite the recent bearish signals, the overall market structure indicates that demand for gold remains robust. The low recorded in February established a higher swing low, suggesting that bullish demand is still present. However, the breakdown of the wedge pattern may lead to further testing of support levels and potential consolidation.

Conclusion

In summary, while gold is currently facing short-term bearish pressures due to the breakdown of a rising wedge pattern and the loss of momentum below key moving averages, the underlying bullish structure remains intact. Traders should monitor the 50-day moving average and other support levels closely for signs of stabilization or further weakness.

About the Author

Bruce Powers is a seasoned finance professional with over 20 years of experience in financial markets. He holds an MBA and is a CMT® charter holder, having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and as a corporate advisor for trading firms.