U.S.–Iran Tensions Return, Forcing Markets to Reprice Geopolitical Risk
By Martin Lam
Summary
The ongoing ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is under renewed strain, with President Trump indicating that military action remains a possibility if Iran does not engage in negotiations. Reports have emerged suggesting that the U.S. is preparing contingency strike plans, which adds to the geopolitical tension.
In economic news, U.S. business activity showed improvement in April, with the manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level in nearly four years and jobless claims remaining low. However, inflation risks related to the ongoing conflict persist.
Market participants are focusing on the U.K.'s March retail sales data, which is expected to show a modest growth of 0.2% month-on-month. This data will provide insights into how the tensions in the Middle East are impacting U.K. consumer behavior and the broader economy. Additionally, the final U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April is anticipated, with the preliminary reading having dropped to a record low. A rebound in the final figure could indicate that markets have overestimated geopolitical risks, while a downward revision could heighten concerns about stagflation.
Global Market Review (April 24, 2026)
U.S. stock markets experienced declines amid volatile trading, influenced by the renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran and uncertainty surrounding future peace talks. The Dow Jones fell by 0.36%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.41%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 0.89%. U.S. Treasury prices also fell, while the dollar gained strength, reflecting the heightened geopolitical risks.
Gold prices retreated as inflation concerns were fueled by rising oil prices and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates. Spot gold closed down 0.95% at $4,692.69 per ounce. Oil prices saw a brief surge following reports of air defense systems in Tehran intercepting targets, indicating a power struggle within Iran between hardliners and moderates.
Key Events Today
- 07:30 JP CPI MAR
- 14:00 GB Retail Sales YoY MAR
- 16:00 EU GERMANY Ifo Business Climate APR
- 20:30 CA Retail Sales MoM FEB
- 22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final APR
Market Analysis (April 24, 2026)
EURUSD
Resistance: 1.1722/1.1746 | Support: 1.1643/1.1620
The EURUSD pair drifted lower as safe-haven flows supported the dollar amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations. The outlook remains bearish below 1.1700.
GBPUSD
Resistance: 1.3517/1.3549 | Support: 1.3413/1.3381
The GBPUSD pair moved lower due to dollar strength and a lack of strong UK data, with downside risks remaining.
USDJPY
Resistance: 160.04/160.46 | Support: 159.37/159.03
The USDJPY pair held near 159.55, supported by firm dollar demand, but intervention risks keep upside momentum limited.
US Crude Oil Futures (JUN)
Resistance: 101.06/105.00 | Support: 93.18/89.31
Oil prices surged over 4% due to escalating tensions in Iran, with near-term price risks skewed to the upside.
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4735/4764 | Support: 4675/4638
Gold traded near $4,687, pressured by a stronger dollar but supported by geopolitical risks.
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 49705/50513 | Support: 48428/47784
The Dow declined as optimism over the Iran conflict resolution faded, with inflation concerns weighing on market sentiment.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 27182/27471 | Support: 26308/25933
The NASDAQ 100 fell, pressured by weakness in software stocks and cautious investor sentiment.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 78825/79491 | Support: 77295/76617
Bitcoin hovered around $78,000, with rising U.S.-Iran tensions dampening risk appetite.