Is SpaceX Stock Worth Just $10 to $30? Scott Galloway Challenges Its $143 Price

Date: August 18, 2026

Overview

Scott Galloway, a professor at New York University and a well-known technology commentator, has expressed skepticism regarding the valuation of SpaceX stock. He estimates the stock's worth to be between $10 and $30 per share, significantly lower than its recent closing price of $143.34. Galloway's analysis suggests that SpaceX shares are overvalued by approximately 79% to 93% based on his estimates.

Key Points from Galloway's Analysis

• Galloway attributes the inflated valuation of SpaceX to a limited public float and index-related demand.
• He argues that the stock's price is not justified by the company's financial performance, despite acknowledging Elon Musk's engineering prowess.
• SpaceX's IPO in June raised about $75 billion, valuing the company at approximately $1.77 trillion, but the stock has since seen significant volatility.

Market Dynamics

After its IPO, SpaceX's stock initially surged to $225 before experiencing a decline of about 45%. Galloway points out that only 4% to 5% of the company's shares were available for public trading, which can lead to sharp price movements due to limited supply. Additionally, the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 has created further demand, regardless of its valuation.

Debt Issuance Concerns

Galloway raises concerns about SpaceX's recent $25 billion bond sale, questioning the need for such a large debt issuance shortly after reporting over $100 billion in cash. He suggests that this move indicates the capital-intensive nature of SpaceX's operations and may signal a reliance on borrowed funds for future growth.

Other Expert Opinions

George Noble, a former Fidelity fund manager, shares Galloway's skepticism, predicting a 50% decline in SpaceX's stock by year-end and estimating its fair value at around $30 per share. Noble's analysis focuses on the valuation gap and the company's high spending outside of its Starlink operations.

Risks of Shorting SpaceX

Despite his low valuation estimate, Galloway refrains from shorting SpaceX stock, citing the risks associated with betting against a company with a strong retail following and a charismatic CEO. He notes that announcements related to new projects could potentially drive speculative rallies, regardless of the company's financial performance.

Conclusion

The contrasting views on SpaceX's valuation highlight the complexities surrounding its market position. While skeptics point to overvaluation and financial concerns, proponents see a unique platform with potential across multiple sectors, including reusable rockets, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence. The future value of SpaceX will depend on its ability to generate sustainable profits that align with current market expectations.