Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: WTI Defends $72.72 While Brent Holds $76.56

Published: July 08, 2026

Author: Arslan Ali

Key Points

• OPEC+ maintains output discipline amidst increasing non-OPEC supply, particularly from U.S. shale production.
• Global refinery utilization remains high, supporting steady demand for transportation fuels and petrochemical feedstocks.
• U.S. crude inventories are near minimum working levels, while demand for refined products remains strong.

Market Overview

The oil and gas market is characterized by OPEC+ supply discipline, countered by rising non-OPEC output, especially from U.S. shale. The summer driving season has led to increased demand for transportation fuels. Recent data indicates that U.S. crude stock changes are modest, with inventories hovering near working lows. The overall demand for oil is supported by robust economic conditions.

In the natural gas sector, U.S. production continues to reach new highs, bolstered by both associated gas from oil wells and dedicated gas wells. The U.S. LNG export market remains active, with significant volumes being shipped internationally. Domestic natural gas inventories are filling up during the injection season and are above normal levels. Demand remains steady in the industrial sector, while the power sector's demand fluctuates based on weather conditions.

Natural Gas Price Analysis

Natural gas is currently trading at $3.290. The price has shown a bullish reaction at the $3.245 EMA 50 support level after initial rejections at $3.230 EMA 100. The market structure indicates strong buyer defense at the $3.099 low swing level, with the RSI at approximately 60. A trade idea suggests buying at $3.290, targeting a profit at $3.260, with a stop loss at $3.12.

WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis

WTI crude oil is trading at $72.72, testing the Fib 0.618 retest level near $83.37. The price has rebounded from a low of $66.83 and is showing bullish momentum. The RSI is near 39, indicating a neutral position. A trade idea suggests buying at $72.72, with a profit target of $80.21 and a stop loss at $73.15.

Brent Crude Oil Price Analysis

Brent crude oil is currently priced at $76.56. After bouncing from the $78.27 moving average level, the price is testing the blue channel support at $76.09. The market shows bullish wicks at this support level, indicating buyer absorption. The RSI is near 80. A trade idea suggests buying at $76.56, targeting a profit at $78.24, with a stop loss at $76.09.

Conclusion

The current market dynamics for oil and natural gas reflect a balance between OPEC+ supply discipline and increasing U.S. production. With strong demand for both crude and natural gas, traders are advised to consider the outlined trade ideas based on technical analysis and market conditions.