Market Analysis Summary: Nasdaq 100 Surges Amid US/Iran Ceasefire Deal

Published on: April 8, 2026

Author: Axel Rudolph, Market Analyst

Overview

The article discusses the recent surge in the Nasdaq 100 index, which has rallied significantly due to a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. This geopolitical development has led to a drop in the USD/JPY currency pair and a decline in Brent crude oil prices.

Key Developments

• Oil Prices: Brent crude fell below $100, dropping to around $91 per barrel, while WTI crude slipped to the mid-$90s. This decline is attributed to the ceasefire agreement, which allows limited transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil supply.
• Market Reactions: Global equities experienced a rally, with S&P 500 futures up approximately 2.5%, European futures rising over 5%, and Asian markets gaining between 4% and 6%.
• Safe Haven Assets: The US dollar weakened, and bond yields decreased as risk sentiment improved. However, gold prices increased, approaching a three-week high near $4,800, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.
• Geopolitical Risks: Analysts warn that the oil market may still reflect elevated risks due to the fragile nature of the ceasefire and the potential for renewed disruptions.

Market Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Performance

The Nasdaq 100 is experiencing one of its strongest daily rallies since May 2025, with expectations to reach one-month highs. The index is currently targeting early March highs between 25,152 and 25,189, with support expected at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 24,473.

USD/JPY Trends

The USD/JPY currency pair has slipped below its recent uptrend line, currently trading around ¥158.05. A further decline could push it towards the ¥157.97 to ¥157.72 range, while the medium-term uptrend remains intact as long as it stays above the mid-March low of ¥157.51.

Brent Crude Oil Analysis

Brent crude oil prices have dropped to a near one-month low of $90.61 per barrel. A fall below this level could lead to a revisit of the $85 to $84 region. The short-term outlook remains bearish while prices stay below the March high of $103.14.

Conclusion

The ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has had a significant impact on global markets, particularly in the oil sector and equity indices like the Nasdaq 100. While the immediate outlook appears bullish for equities, caution remains due to the geopolitical risks that could affect market stability in the future.