Market Analysis Summary - December 30, 2025
On December 30, 2025, global markets exhibited a cautious tone following significant volatility in precious metals and escalating geopolitical tensions. The U.S. Dollar Index remained relatively stable, closing slightly lower at 98.01, while U.S. Treasury yields saw a decline across the board. The 10-year yield fell to 4.111%, and the 2-year yield dropped to 3.438%, indicating ongoing uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy amidst rising political pressures and market fluctuations.
Market Highlights
Risk assets generally weakened, with U.S. equity indices closing lower, particularly impacted by declines in technology stocks. Commodities displayed notable divergence: spot gold experienced a sharp $200 intraday sell-off, closing below $4,350, while silver saw extreme price swings after reaching record highs. Conversely, oil prices rebounded due to ongoing uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, with both WTI and Brent crude rising over 1%, underscoring the market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks.
Key Outlook
Attention is directed towards the upcoming release of the U.S. October House Price Index, anticipated to show a 0.1% month-on-month increase, compared to a previous flat reading. A stronger-than-expected result could indicate resilience in the U.S. housing sector, potentially bolstering the U.S. dollar and equity indices. Conversely, a weaker outcome might reignite concerns over slowing domestic demand, affecting overall risk sentiment.
Key Data and Events
- 22:00 - US House Price Index MoM OCT
- 03:00 - FOMC Minutes
- 05:30 - API Crude Oil Stock Change
- 09:30 - CN NBS Manufacturing PMI DEC
- 21:30 - US Initial Jobless Claims
Market Analysis by Currency Pair
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1820 / 1.1839
Support: 1.1738 / 1.1719
The EUR/USD pair is supported by a softer USD due to year-end profit-taking and expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2026. The price is consolidating near the top of its ascending channel, with key resistance at 1.1820–1.1839 and support around 1.1738–1.1719.
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3581 / 1.3650
Support: 1.3472 / 1.3403
The GBP/USD is tracking broad USD movements, with resistance near 1.3581–1.3650 and support around 1.3403, as UK-specific catalysts remain limited.
USD/JPY
Resistance: 156.52 / 156.94
Support: 155.69 / 155.17
The USD/JPY remains range-bound below the resistance zone, with the yen firming after BoJ minutes suggested further rate hikes.
Crude Oil Futures
Resistance: 58.42 / 58.87
Support: 57.38 / 56.92
Oil prices are supported by geopolitical tensions, with key resistance at 58.42–58.87 and support at 56.92–57.38.
Spot Gold
Resistance: 4,421 / 4,488
Support: 4,275 / 4,209
Gold retreated sharply after failing to maintain record highs, with focus shifting to the 4,275–4,209 support zone.
Dow Futures
Resistance: 48,743 / 49,066
Support: 48,033 / 47,720
Dow Futures pulled back amid profit-taking, with key support at 47,720.
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 25,658 / 25,835
Support: 25,237 / 25,095
The NASDAQ 100 is consolidating, with support at 25,095–25,237.
Bitcoin
Resistance: 88,058 / 88,913
Support: 85,306 / 84,440
Bitcoin is trading within a range, with resistance at 88,058 and support at 85,306.
Overall, the market remains cautious as investors await key economic data and navigate geopolitical uncertainties.