Dogecoin (DOGE) May Dip Another 10% Amid Renewed US–Iran Tensions

Key Points

• Dogecoin's inverse cup-and-handle pattern suggests a potential 10% drop toward $0.063.
• MVRV pricing bands indicate the $0.06 area as a possible downside target.
• Rising oil prices and increased Fed rate-hike expectations could further pressure DOGE.

Market Overview

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 50% over the past year. The recent escalation of military tensions between the US and Iran is likely to exacerbate this downturn, as fears of oil-driven inflation resurface, leading to renewed speculation about Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern

On the four-hour chart, Dogecoin is forming an inverse cup-and-handle pattern, which typically indicates a bearish continuation. After a brief rebound in early July, DOGE has struggled to maintain upward momentum, returning to the support area of $0.071–$0.072. A decisive break below this level could confirm the bearish setup, with a target of approximately $0.063, representing a potential drop of over 10% from current levels.

Moving Averages and RSI

Currently, DOGE is trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-period exponential moving averages, indicating that bearish sentiment prevails. The relative strength index (RSI) is around 38, suggesting there is still room for further declines before reaching oversold conditions.

MVRV Pricing Bands

According to Glassnode's MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands, Dogecoin is approaching historically low valuation levels. The pricing bands indicate that DOGE has slipped below the -0.5σ band and is nearing the -1.0σ zone around $0.06. This aligns with the technical target from the inverse cup-and-handle pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of a test of the $0.06–$0.063 area.

Impact of US–Iran Tensions

The renewed military conflict between the US and Iran has raised concerns about energy supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude nearing $80 per barrel. Higher oil prices could sustain inflationary pressures, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to ease monetary policy. As of July 9, traders are pricing in a 50.8% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, with the total probability of a hike reaching approximately 66%.