Brent Crude Oil Analysis - November 2026
By Kathleen Brooks, Research Director UK
Key Takeaways
- Brent crude oil prices fell approximately 8.7% on November 6, 2026, settling below $95 per barrel.
- This marked the first time Brent dropped below $100 since early October.
- Prices have since bounced back to around $96 but remain 13% lower for the week.
Reasons for the Price Drop
The decline in Brent crude prices was primarily driven by geopolitical factors rather than US domestic energy policy. The Republican Party's loss of control in both the House and Senate raised hopes for a de-escalation in the ongoing conflict in Iran. Former President Trump acknowledged that the war and rising fuel prices contributed to the Republican losses, indicating no immediate escalation of military actions.
As a result, traders began to remove some of the war risk premium from oil prices. Additionally, the US dollar weakened to a two-month low, further contributing to the sell-off. Brent crude has fluctuated between approximately $70 and $120 since the onset of the war, and the recent price is about 20% lower than its late-October peak.
Future Price Outlook
The future price of Brent crude will largely depend on developments in the Middle East conflict. While technical analysis can provide insights, the primary driver of oil prices remains headline risk associated with geopolitical events.
Downside Risks
Brent is currently just above its 200-day moving average near $92.40. A break below this level, or credible ceasefire discussions, could lead to prices dropping into the low-to-mid $80s as the war premium unwinds.
Upside Potential
Despite the recent election results, the physical supply constraints affecting oil prices remain unchanged. The new Congress will not take office until January, and Trump's comments suggest no immediate escalation, meaning that any renewed military action or supply disruptions could quickly push Brent prices back above $100.
Base Case Scenario
Traders may grow impatient with the lack of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, leading to volatile trading within a range of $88 to $100 for Brent crude. Developments regarding Iran talks will likely drive most price movements.
What to Watch
- Any formal US-Iran diplomatic channels or announcements regarding a ceasefire.
- Potential shipping and supply disruptions in the Gulf region.
- The direction of the US dollar, which remains under pressure as the week progresses.