Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bullish Reversal Faces Key Resistance
By Bruce Powers | Published: Jul 09, 2026
Overview
Crude oil has shown early signs of a potential bottom following a bullish reversal, but buyers must overcome significant resistance levels to confirm a broader recovery. This analysis focuses on the recent price movements of WTI crude oil and the technical indicators that suggest a shift in momentum.
Bullish Reversal Signals Early Trend Improvement
This week, crude oil triggered a one-week bullish reversal with a rally above the previous week's high of $72.37. This marks the first week in seven that the price has risen above the prior week's high, indicating improving bullish momentum after a trend low of $67.73. The daily close for WTI crude oil was around $72.16, reflecting a 3.94% decline, as it broke down from a symmetrical triangle and traded below all three moving averages.
Fibonacci Support Suggests Correction May Be Complete
A 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance completed near the low of $68.81, suggesting that the bearish retracement may have concluded. The bullish price action this week supports this theory, but further confirmation is necessary. While early reversal signals are promising, crude oil must overcome nearby resistance levels to confirm a larger recovery.
Resistance Zone Challenges Recovery Momentum
After hitting a high of $76.61 on Wednesday, crude oil tested the $76.83 spike low support zone from March 10 as resistance. This level is significant as it was the first swing low established after the March peak. Additionally, the 200-day moving average near $78.61 poses a challenge for buyers. A one-day bearish reversal occurred on Thursday, confirming resistance near the 200-day average, indicating that downward pressure remains.
Recovery Path Depends on Breaking Higher Resistance
Despite the challenges, crude oil bounced from a strong support zone, completing a test of prior resistance for a long-term falling wedge pattern that broke out on March 2. A deeper pullback from the recent swing high could lead to a higher swing low, making a breakout above $76.61 more likely. The primary upside target remains near $88.90, but before reaching that level, the next targets of $79.23 and $81.94 must be reclaimed. Successfully moving through these resistance levels would strengthen the case for a broader recovery.