Market Analysis Summary: Rate-Hike Outlook Firms on Strong U.S. Data; Tech Stocks Fall
By Martin Lam
Key Takeaways
- U.S. Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1%, while May PCE inflation rose above 4% year-on-year.
- Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady in July, with the earliest possible hike in September.
- Today's focus is on the June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, with expectations of a rebound despite weak confidence amid inflation and rate hikes.
Global Market Review (26/06/2026)
U.S. stocks showed mixed results: Dow +0.14%, S&P 500 -0.01%, Nasdaq -0.46%. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened. Gold prices rose as the odds of a Fed rate hike decreased, while oil prices increased by 2% following an incident involving a vessel in Oman.
Key Events Today
22:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final JUN
Market Analysis (26/06/2026)
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1.1408 / 1.1422 | Support: 1.1328 / 1.1314
The EUR/USD stabilized near a 13-month low after U.S. inflation data met expectations, with a mild rebound halting a three-day decline.
Analyst View: The pair may remain range-bound, potentially testing above 1.1400.
Bias: Low-range consolidation
GBP/USD
Resistance: 1.3246 / 1.3269 | Support: 1.3150 / 1.3132
Despite strong U.S. core PCE data, the dollar weakened, allowing GBP/USD to rebound above 1.3200.
Analyst View: A further rise requires a break above the 10-day moving average around 1.3260.
Bias: Low-range consolidation
USD/JPY
Resistance: 162.06 / 162.18 | Support: 161.65 / 161.49
USD/JPY fluctuates near a nearly 40-year high, with the widening U.S.–Japan yield differential keeping the yen under pressure.
Analyst View: The pair remains in high-level consolidation, with potential for short-term pullbacks.
Bias: Cautiously bullish
US Crude Oil Futures (AUG)
Resistance: 73.68 / 74.29 | Support: 69.66 / 69.04
Crude oil rebounded after a vessel incident near the Strait of Hormuz, but increased tanker traffic caps the upside.
Analyst View: Crude may consolidate within the lower range, with resistance at the 10-day moving average above $75.
Bias: Low-range consolidation
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Resistance: 4024 / 4078 | Support: 3983 / 3939
Gold rebounded as the dollar weakened, recovering from its lowest level since November 2025.
Analyst View: If the $3,960 level holds, gold may rise toward $4,100.
Bias: Mild rebound
Dow Jones Futures
Resistance: 52537 / 52744 | Support: 51663 / 51404
The Dow fluctuated after U.S. data, briefly reaching a new intraday record but failing to hold.
Analyst View: Key resistance remains at 52,660.
Bias: High-level consolidation
NASDAQ 100
Resistance: 30084 / 30381 | Support: 28801 / 28493
Tech weakness and valuation concerns pressured the Nasdaq, though the pace of decline has moderated.
Analyst View: Monitor trading within the moving-average band and this week’s lows.
Bias: Range-bound consolidation
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Resistance: 60306/61252 | Support: 58155/57177
Bitcoin is trading around $59,000, its lowest level since 2024, as expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve weigh on sentiment.
Analyst View: Focus on whether downside momentum can ease.
Bias: Under pressure at lower levels